49ers vs Buccaneers (SF -5.5 O/U 50)
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San Francisco vs. Tampa Bay | Sunday, November 10, 2024
Two of the NFC’s most formidable teams will face off this Sunday, with one coming out of their bye week, while the other is headed into it. That week of rest may make a significant difference for the San Francisco 49ers when they head to Tampa and face off against the Bucs, who are coming off of a Monday Night Football overtime loss to the Chiefs. The 49ers and the Buccaneers both sit outside of the top spot in their respective divisions but remain fully capable of clinching a place in the postseason despite some harsh results. Both have 1-2 records against division rivals in 2024 but have shown a capacity for playing up to their opposition. In fact, the Bucs had a closer game against the Chiefs than San Francisco did in their Super Bowl rematch, a testament to their strength in that regard.
One of the biggest storylines to start this season has been the absence of the 49ers' star running back Christian McCaffrey, and the ambiguity around when fans could possibly anticipate his return. Coming off of their bye, San Francisco could be getting CMC and a whole host of others back on offense, including lineman John Feliciano, wideout Jauan Jennings, and their starting kicker Jake Moody, all of whom practiced this week. The Niners are only 1 win off the pace they set last year, which earned them the 1 seed in the NFC and a Super Bowl appearance. It's safe to say that this season they haven’t passed the eye test with flying colors as they have in years past. Even with all of those injuries, the Niners have still been a top-10 offense in 2024.
Defense has been serviceable though not elite in San Francisco, with the exclusion of their efficiency in the pass rush. Nick Sorenson’s unit has caused a higher percentage of QB hurries (6.9%) and pressures (23.5%) than Tampa Bay has (6.7% and 20.9% respectively) with the third-lowest blitz percentage in the league at 17.3%. In contrast, Tampa blitzes 27.6% of the time and has 5 more sacks. This is to be expected, as it’s long been a strength in San Francisco, but their defense is more or less average across all other categories.
As you can probably surmise from those stats, Tampa has had a bottom-5 defense in the league thus far, struggling in the passing game above all. They’ve allowed the third-most yards and 1st downs through the air in the league, while also conceding the 5th-most yards per rushing attempt. They have allowed the 4th-most points in the league with 243 scored against them, only better than the Panthers, Jaguars, and Raiders. Pretty scary company to have in that category.
Where the Bucs shine is on offense, led by the resurgent Baker Mayfield, who has thrown 23 touchdowns through 9 weeks, the best in the league thus far. His 2,389 passing yards and 225 completions are second only to Geno Smith, proving he’s worth the 3-year, $100 million extension signed this offseason, and potentially a lot more. That’s after losing Chris Godwin to a season-ending injury, and missing Mike Evans for two games. Tight end Cade Otton has stepped up in their absence, while their running offense has yet to explode.
That being said, this should be a tight game, but if McCaffrey can make it back in time, he might just be the difference maker and hold the key to winning this game for San Francisco.
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