Buffalo vs. New York (BUF -2.5, 40.5)
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Buffalo vs. New York | Tuesday, October 14, 2024
Given that the New York Jets just fired their head coach in an all-in season, you would expect this to be a franchise in turmoil. Well, not quite. If they win this Monday night matchup against Buffalo, they will be sitting pretty atop the AFC East, and that looks like a very real possibility given that the Buffalo Bills are on a two-game losing streak.
Josh Allen reverted to his rookie season form by completing just 9 of his 30 pass attempts last week, for 131 yards and one touchdown. In fairness, it did come against a very stingy Texans defense, but there is definite cause for concern given the Bills got boat-raced by the Ravens, 35-10, one week earlier. After a stellar start to the season, this has certainly taken some of the wind out of the Bills' sails, but their 28.4 points per game still rank as the third-best in the NFL, and we know that Josh can turn it on at any time.
The one concern for Buffalo is that Allen’s bad game came without Khalil Shakir on the field, which emphasizes how shallow their wide receiver core is at the moment. There were always going to be concerns about rookie Donte Coleman’s ability to separate, and it doesn’t appear as if he is ready to take on a lead role just yet. Therefore, Shakir’s health will be of paramount importance on Monday night, given they are going up against one of the best defenses in the NFL, which is giving up the second-fewest passing yards per game, with 136.6.
Overall, the Jets are giving up the fifth-fewest points on the year and the second-fewest yards per game, with 255.8. They are not a unit to be taken lightly, and the Bills will need to be much better than they were against Houston if they are to avoid a crucial division loss here. New York has been weaker when it comes to stopping the run, so perhaps this can be a good game for James Cook, and we know how dangerous Josh Allen can be with his legs.
The dominance of this New York defense is one of the reasons why Robert Saleh’s removal came as such a shock. With them being one of the very best in the NFL, it is the offensive side of the ball that has been so damaging to the Jets' overall performances this year. Aaron Rodgers was meant to be the team’s savior, but through five weeks, he has only been able to help the team rack up 93 points, which just so happens to be the same amount that the team produced with Zach Wilson under center over the same period last year.
This has amounted to just 18.6 points per game, which is 25th in the NFL, and 286.6 yards per game, which is 27th in the NFL. A big reason for this problem is that New York has completely failed to get their star running back, Breece Hall, going. He is averaging just 3 yards per carry on the season and has just 197 yards on the ground through five games. Similarly, Garrett Wilson has only just posted his first 100-yard performance of the season, and it took 22 targets for him to just about get there.
Nothing has been working for the Jets so far, and they now have to go up against a sturdy Buffalo defense, who are out for revenge after two very underwhelming performances over the last two weeks. The pressure is on for New York to get a win and steady the ship, but with Buffalo also under pressure to avoid a three-game losing streak, we can expect this to be a very hard-fought clash.
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JOSH ALLEN UNDER 226 PASSING YARDS