Broncos vs Chiefs (KC -8 O/U 41.5)
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Denver vs. Kansas City | Sunday, November 10, 2024
Having already played against the other half of the AFC West, the Broncos and Chiefs are set to face off for the first time this season on Sunday afternoon. The Chiefs remain undefeated, looking to go 9-0 for the first time since 2013. Denver, on the other hand, is looking to come back from a lackluster start, finding its rhythm with their new rookie QB in Bo Nix. That rhythm was disrupted last week thanks to a 41-10 beatdown in Baltimore, where Denver was comprehensively outplayed by one of the AFC favorites. The Chiefs came off a far less decisive result, with a narrow overtime win against the Buccaneers thanks to some heroics from the recently acquired DeAndre Hopkins, which kept the Chiefs' undefeated run alive.
They haven’t exactly cruised to 8-0, with Patrick Mahomes experiencing an uncharacteristically weak start to 2024, already throwing more picks than he did in the entirety of the 2019 or 2020 season, on pace for the most of his career. His statistically worst season on record hasn’t been helped by the myriad of injuries on offense but might see an uptick with the aforementioned addition of DeAndre Hopkins. That said, they still have the 10th most productive offense in the league, so even through their struggles, it’s easy to take the inherent quality in this KC attack for granted.
The Chiefs’ defense has stood tall, remaining a top 5 unit in the league, and not allowing more than 25 points in a single game so far this season, which has given their sub-par offense plenty of chances to win games. Beyond the numbers, the Chiefs have barely passed the eye test this season, still yet to truly dominate any of their opponents as they have in years past.
Defense is Denver’s greatest strength by some margin. They’ve allowed scores on only 30.1% of offensive drives and have the highest expected points contributed by defense. With a pass-rushing unit that saw an improved Zach Allen and Jonathon Cooper giving more bite to their front line than last season, while Pat Surtain II has unsurprisingly kept opposing pass-catchers quiet all season long. Vance Joseph’s unit has kept the Broncos in some tight games, only to have the lid blown off against the league’s best offense in week 8.
The offense has started to turn things around since their 0-2 start, kicking into high gear after a 10-9 win over the Jets in week 4, as Bo Nix settles in more with each passing game. His vast experience in college has allowed him to avoid common rookie mistakes—taking fewer sacks and turnovers than many of his counterparts, with his running ability a huge asset for Joe Lombardi’s offense. The scoring spoils have been evenly shared amongst the receiving and rushing corps, but will need something special to overcome a truly elite defense in KC.
The key to this game for Denver will be turnovers. Their defense has at least one in each of their wins, and none in 3 of their 4 losses. With Mahomes giving the ball away more than ever before, the Broncos will have to provide their offense with as many chances as possible to put some points on the board. With two strong defenses and underperforming offenses, this game looks to be a tight one, stirring up that familiar, inevitable feeling that the Chiefs will come out on top.
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Broncos +8