TAMPA BAY BUCCANEERS VS DENVER BRONCOS (TB -6.5, 41)
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Tampa Bay vs Denver 9/22/24
Baker Mayfield’s story in Tampa is a pretty spectacular one. After being cast aside multiple times, he settled in Tampa and has now not only earned his way into that lucrative second contract, but appears to be a genuine top 10 quarterback, proven capable of taking his team to the playoffs.
The Week 2 win over Detroit laid the foundations for Baker’s best season yet, and the best the Tampa Bay Buccaneers have seen since the departure of Tom Brady. Beating Detroit legitimized the franchise as a postseason threat, and they’ll be hoping to extend their record to 3-0 against the Denver Broncos this weekend.
Tampa Bay are averaging 28.5 points per game through the first two matchups of the season, and are converting on 48% of their third downs. Mike Evans is proving unguardable as always, and Chris Godwin has provided the volume with 15 catches, 200 yards and two touchdowns so far on the year.
The run game is suffering a little, averaging in the lower third of the league on yards per rush and rushing yards per game, but the efficiency of the pass game has been enough for Baker and co. so far.
On the opposite sideline this weekend in Tampa, the Denver Broncos still have a lot of kinks to iron out. They currently sit 28th or lower in just about every statistical category offensively, including points per game (13), yards per game (263), yards per play (4.2), and third down conversion (23%).
They are yet to establish a solid ground game, and Bo Nix has struggled badly at quarterback, with little separation from his receivers only adding to the tension of the job for the first year signal caller.
This weekend's game favors Tampa Bay by 6.5, and they’re 2-0 against the spread so far on the year, against better opposition. Denver are 1-1 ATS, but covered by half a point in the 26-20 loss against Seattle in Week 1, before the low scoring loss against Pittsburgh last time out.
This one features one offense that hit the ground running, with rhythm, timing and familiarity all a factor between the quarterback and his receivers. The other offense looks unsure as to who the starting quarterback could and should be, but has to stay committed to Bo Nix despite the early struggles.
Unless Denver are able to nullify the Bucs two receivers, something far easier said than done despite the presence of Pat Surtain II in the secondary, this one could be a little one sided. Denver will need to piece something together this weekend if they’re looking to cover that 6.5 spread on the road.
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