Chargers vs Chiefs Free Pick, NFL Free Picks, NFL Predictions 12/8/24

Los Angeles vs Kansas City (KC -4, 42.5)

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Chargers vs Chiefs Free Pick, NFL Free Picks, NFL Predictions 12/8/24

LA Chargers @ KC Chiefs

The Los Angeles Chargers will head to Arrowhead Stadium to take on Patrick Mahomes and the 11-1 Kansas City Chiefs this weekend. The Chargers are riding high, having won 5 of their last 6 games, including a gritty victory over the Falcons in Week 13. In that game, the defense stepped up in a big way, picking off Kirk Cousins four times and limiting Atlanta to just 13 points. However, the offense struggled. Justin Herbert threw for just under 150 yards, and the Chargers didn’t register an offensive touchdown, relying on three field goals and a pick-six to get the win.

To have any chance of knocking off the Chiefs in their own building, the Chargers will need a significant improvement on offense. Kansas City, coming off a narrow victory over the Raiders, will provide a tough challenge, but Los Angeles has the defensive tools to keep it close if their offense can find its rhythm. They are currently giving up just 15.7 points per game, which is the fewest in the NFL.

The Chiefs have been the masters of close games this season, with 9 of their 11 victories coming by one score or less—more than any other team in the NFL. Many of these wins have been nothing short of improbable, like their blocked game-winning field goal against the Broncos. In their most recent game, the Chiefs were gifted a win when Raiders quarterback Aidan O'Connell fumbled in the final minute due to a bad snap while in field goal range, sealing the Chiefs' victory.

While much of the spotlight goes to Patrick Mahomes for the team’s success, it's the defense that has truly been leading the charge. Kansas City's rush defense is ranked in the top 5 in several categories, including 2nd in yards per rush and 3rd in rushing yards allowed per game. They also rank 8th in points allowed per game, giving up just 19.6, which is nearly 5 points fewer than their offense, which scores 24.1 points per game—11th in the NFL. The Chiefs’ defense has been the unsung hero, making up for some surprising mishaps from Mahomes and the offense.

The two teams met earlier this season on September 29th in Los Angeles, where the Chiefs found themselves trailing 10-0 after the first quarter. However, they responded with 17 unanswered points to secure a 17-10 victory. Travis Kelce had one of his standout performances of the season, hauling in 7 catches for 89 yards. Defensively, Chris Jones was a constant disruptor, sacking Justin Herbert twice and causing significant pressure on the Chargers' offensive line.

If the Chargers hope to pull off an upset and hand the Chiefs their second loss of the season, they’ll need a much more potent offensive showing. Scoring just 10 points won’t be enough to overcome Kansas City's dynamic defense and explosive playmakers, even if they have been a bit off this year.

In this matchup, the Chargers will be without JK Dobbins, who has been placed on IR, leaving Gus Edwards to take on a larger role in the backfield. The Chargers will be hoping that Edwards, or perhaps rookie Kimani Vidal, can pick up the mantle from Dobbins, but there has been no sign of that yet.

Meanwhile, the Chiefs secured their playoff spot with a win over the Raiders, but their last three victories have been by a combined total of just 7 points, with plenty of luck involved. The Chargers, fighting to keep their playoff hopes alive, will likely come out with more urgency and hunger than the Chiefs. That determination could be the key factor in this game, driving the Chargers to an upset victory.

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