Chargers vs Falcons Free Pick, NFL Free Picks, NFL Predictions 12/1/24

Chargers vs Falcons (ATL -2, 47.5)

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Chargers vs Falcons Free Pick, NFL Free Picks, NFL Predictions 12/1/24

Los Angeles Chargers vs. Atlanta | Sunday, December 1, 2024

Fresh off a disappointing loss in the ‘Harbowl’, the 7-4 Los Angeles Chargers look to gather themselves and keep on pace for making the AFC Wildcard. Their opponents this week, the 6-5 Atlanta Falcons, are also looking to get right after their bye and keep the race for the NFC South in their hands. The objective for both teams is the same: don’t let the season slip away.

The Chargers are coming off a difficult 30-23 loss against the Baltimore Ravens, putting LA on the bad side of a tiebreaker that could have some pivotal implications for seeding and matchups in the postseason. The Ravens entered their matchup with the Chargers with the single worst passing defense in the NFL, allowing 284.5 passing yards per game. Unfortunately, Justin Herbert couldn’t quite make the most of that advantageous matchup, posting 218 yards with no touchdowns. He will try his luck again this week against a Falcons secondary that is giving up 229.9 passing yards per game, which ranks 26th in the NFL.

The Chargers’ offensive identity under Greg Roman has been balanced and not dependent on Herbert. They average 118.1 rushing yards a game, which is 13th in the NFL. They entered the season with a two-headed monster at running back with Gus Edwards and J.K. Dobbins expected to be a 1A 1B tandem, and, while Dobbins has emerged as the leader in the clubhouse, he looks set to miss this game with a knee sprain. That leaves Edwards in charge, who has just 206 yards on the season, although he has also missed time with injury.

The Chargers' receiving corps had no big names entering the year, but they’ve come into themselves. Rookie Ladd McConkey has been a bright spot, leading the team in receiving yards with 698. Quentin Johnston was viewed as a complete bust as a first-round pick, but head coach Jim Harbough has totally transformed him into a reliable weapon who now leads the team with six receiving touchdowns.

As for the Falcons, who most recently lost to the Denver Broncos 38-6, this run-heavy Chargers philosophy might be a bad matchup. Atlanta ranks 19th in rushing defense, allowing 127.2 yards per game, which isn’t awful, but suggests that the Chargers could be in for a good day on the ground, even without Dobbins. Raheem Morris will also be conscious of the fact that his defense is producing the fewest sacks per game this year, averaging out at just 0.9.

Kirk Cousins entered his age 36 season with an Achilles injury, and his lack of mobility has been evident this year despite the Falcons’ top-notch offensive line. This lack of mobility has all but removed play action from the Falcons' offensive play calling, contributing to him having three games this season with a passer rating under 70. When the offensive is stuck, it’s really stuck.

All is not lost though. One of the biggest frustrations with Atlanta last year was Arthur Smith’s lack of usage for his best weapons, in Bijan Robinson, Drake London, and Kyle Pitts. They ranked 29th in passing play percentage last season at 52.2% and fans were ready for offensive coordinator Zac Robinson to fully unleash the skill position players. Now middle of the pack at 15th with 57.35% passing plays, they rank eighth in total offense at 361.5 and ninth in yards per play at 5.8. They will need to be at their best this weekend though, going up against a Chargers defense that is holding offenses to the fewest points per game, with 15.9.

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Chargers +2