Chiefs vs Browns Free Pick, NFL Free Picks, NFL Predictions 12/15/24

Kansas City vs Cleveland (KC -4.5, 43.5)

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Chiefs vs Browns Free Pick, NFL Free Picks, NFL Predictions 12/15/24

Kansas City Chiefs vs. Cleveland Browns | Sunday, December 15, 2024

Surprise, surprise; The Chiefs edged out another narrow victory with a late field goal. This time, it was a 2-point margin over the division rival Chargers, taking KC to a 12-1 record at the top of the AFC. With Buffalo falling in LA, the Chiefs look dead set for another one-seed and first-round bye, and at this point, is anyone even surprised? They look far from perfect, and have clear deficiencies on both sides of the ball, yet they continue to get it done because of good coaching and clinical production in the high-pressure moments.

This week, they turn their attention to the Cleveland Browns, who just fell to 3-10 after losing to the Pittsburgh Steelers. These two teams couldn’t be much further apart from a record standpoint, but you just know that KC will find a way to keep it close. Their last three victories have come by margins of 3, 2, and 2, and two of those games were against the Raiders and Panthers. Close games are just what Kansas City does, partly because they are not ranking inside the top 10 as either a rushing or passing offense. They get the job done on third and fourth down in the closing moments, but it’s often a grind up to that point.

The unit that will be trying to slow them down this weekend is also performing well below their usual standard. Myles Garrett and his Cleveland defense are allowing the seventh most points per game this year, with 25.8, whilst ranking 22nd as a rushing defense, giving up 127.9 yards per game. They are a bit tougher against the pass, ranking 14th, with 215.3 yards per game, but this is not the usual daunting Brown’s unit that we have become accustomed to in recent years. Perhaps this a game where KC tries to unleash running back Isiah Pacheco a bit more, who has generally been kept on a tight leash since returning from injury. The Browns are giving up 4.5 yards per carry and over 1 rushing touchdown per game on the season, which makes this game a good opportunity for Kansas City to try and get the ground game going a bit.

When Cleveland have the ball, you can expect fireworks. Jameis Winston has injected life into the offense, but he is seemingly just as likely to give the ball to the opposing defense as he is his own playmaker. His last 5 games have produced 9 touchdowns and 9 interceptions, and he will now be tested by a Chiefs defense that is inside the top 10 for both points (19.4) and yards (310.1) conceded per game.

Unfortunately, it is unlikely he will get much support from the run game, with Cleveland producing a fourth-lowest 88.5 rushing yards per game. Given Kansas City are limiting opponents to 88.3 rushing yards per game, which is third-best in the NFL, it looks like it will all be on Jameis this weekend. On the plus side, Jameis has produced a top-tier connection with Jerry Jeudy, who is nearing 1,000 yards, and David Njoku, who has 3 touchdowns in the last two games.

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Game Total Under 43.5