Kansas City Chiefs vs Atlanta Falcons (KC -3, 46.5)
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Kansas City Chiefs vs Atlanta Falcons
The Kansas City Chiefs are 2-0, but have certainly been walking a fine line early on this season. The win over the Baltimore Ravens came down to a toe length, while the second against Joe Burrow and the Bengals saw them rescued by Harrison Butker’s game winning kick, claiming a closely contested 26-25 win.
The Chiefs will now go on the road for the first time this season, facing an Atlanta Falcons team that just upset the Philadelphia Eagles on primetime. Perhaps it’s just the Chiefs standards we’ve gotten used to, but the two games they’ve played so far this season have felt a little underwhelming. Perhaps that’s because the consistency of the offense hasn’t quite been there, and things look a little different through the first two games, with Travis Kelce’s role in the offense fading somewhat so far in 2024.
Isiah Pacheco headed to injured reserve following the game against the Bengals, diminishing the offense of one of their most reliable options. They’ll now turn to a blend of rookie Carson Steele, vet addition Samaje Perine and a familiar face in Kareem Hunt. The Chiefs had been in the middle of the pack when it came to their performance on the ground, and we’ll have to see how the shift in personnel affects those numbers.
The offense as a collective is 6th in points per game (26.5), and 5th in yards per play (5.9). I don’t doubt they’ll figure it out, and perhaps we see them back at their best this weekend in Atlanta.
The Falcons themselves coasted the length of the field on Monday Night to dispatch the Eagles on their own field. Kirk Cousins drove the offense all the way down there in just three plays, before converting the game winning touchdown to Drake London.
The new Falcons QB looked better in game two, but he’s still very clearly impaired by the achilles injury he suffered to his right foot mid-season in 2023. As his plant foot, he has no power in that leg, he’s struggling to step into his throws and his movement in the pocket is very limited. The Chiefs pass rush could cause Atlanta some real problems as a result.
Atlanta falls in the middle third of the NFL right now in just about every category. Both in the pass and the run game. Bijan Robinson has looked really good running the football, and this could be a major breakout year for him. Kirk Cousins and Drake London still need to find their connection, while we’ve seen glimpses of both Darnell Mooney and Kyle Pitts.
This weekend's game favors the Chiefs by 3.5, a line that feels shorter than you might first think. Oddsmakers clearly believe these two teams are a little closer together than the general public, and the Chiefs did just fail to cover a 6.5 point spread against a wounded Bengals team at home.
Kansas City have split their two games against the spread so far this season, but are 2-0 on overs. The Falcons are also 1-1 against the spread, however 1-0 as the underdog, and 2-0 cashing unders. Somethings gotta give in this one..
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