LA DODGERS @ NY METS (NYM -110, 7.5)
MLB ODDS, MLB PREDICTIONS, MLB PREVIEWS
DODGERS @ YANKEES 10/16/24
The New York Mets just keep getting up off the mat. The Los Angeles Dodgers had a 98-win regular season, but nothing came easy for them either. After two games, could the National League Championship Series be anything but even? Now, the series shifts to New York where the Mets and Dodgers square off in Game 3 of their best-of-seven National League Championship Series.
The Mets will start right-hander Luis Severino (1-0, 4.50 ERA) against fellow right-hander Walker Buehler (0-1, 10.80) in Game 3. In their 7-3 victory on Monday, Mark Vientos' grand slam in the second inning allowed the Mets to even the series. Francisco Lindor opened the scoring for the Mets with a leadoff home run after an eight-pitch at-bat against opener Ryan Brasier, but Vientos' grand slam provided the game-winning runs.
The Mets' comeback from being 11 games below .500 in early June was nothing short of a miracle. They split a doubleheader with the Atlanta Braves on September 30 and came within two outs of losing to the Milwaukee Brewers in an NL wild-card series on October 3. All that came before Pete Alonso hit the game-winning three-run home run in the Met’s most recent act of perseverance.
Game 2 of the NL Division Series saw the Mets blow two leads in a 7-6 loss to the Philadelphia Phillies on October 6. However, they won the next two games to eliminate their opponents. Then, on Sunday night, New York lost 9-0 to begin the NLCS, the most lopsided postseason loss in franchise history.
The Dodgers had thrown 33 consecutive scoreless innings and scored 23 runs without answering since the third inning of their NLDS Game 3 loss to the San Diego Padres. Lindor's home run put an end to that historic run. What the Dodgers accomplished with their pitching staff could also be considered a miracle.
The only Los Angeles starters to pitch more than 100 innings this year are Gavin Stone and Tyler Glasnow. Three-time Cy Young Award winner Clayton Kershaw is also out for the season with an injury. Jack Flaherty, who threw 7.1 innings on September 8 against Cleveland before going seven innings without giving up a run on Sunday, is the only Dodgers starter to go longer than six innings since September 1.
Four lower-leverage relievers, including Brent Honeywell Jr., who threw three innings in his first big-league outing since September 24, followed Brasier on Monday.
Freddie Freeman of the Dodgers and Brandon Nimmo of the Mets, both injured third-place hitters, are scheduled to play on Wednesday. While Freeman was forced to miss Game 4 of the NLDS due to a sprained right ankle, Nimmo was dealing with plantar fasciitis in his left foot.
When Severino last pitched on October 6, the Mets lost Game 2 of the NLDS to the Phillies 7-6. Despite giving up three runs in six innings, Severino was not considered in the decision. In 13 career postseason games (12 starts), he is 2-4 with a 5.01 ERA.
On October 8, in his 2024 postseason debut, Buehler gave up six runs in five innings as the Dodgers lost Game 3 of the NLDS to the Padres 6-5. In 16 postseason starts during his career, he is 3-4 with a 3.40 ERA.
In his two career games (one start), Severino is 0-1 against the Dodgers with a 10.50 ERA. Against the Mets, Buehler has made five starts and is 1-1 with a 5.00 ERA.
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Walker Buehler has given up an average of 3.4 earned runs per game in his last 10 starts. In 6 of those starts, he’s given up 3 or more earned runs. In his last start against San Diego in the NLDS, Buehler pitched just five innings, but he gave up 6 earned runs. Luis Severino of the Mets has two straight playoff quality starts, but he did give up 3 earned runs in each start. Both teams have been trending Over. Eight of the last 11 Dodgers games and 5 of the last 6 Mets games have gone Over the total. Each of Buehler’s and Severino’s last two starts have all gone Over the total.