Miami vs Indianapolis (IND -3, 43.5)
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Dolphins vs. Colts | Sunday, October 20, 2024
I’m not sure that anyone has any idea what we are going to get from the Miami Dolphins this weekend, coming off a much-needed bye week. Tua Tagovailoa’s absence has unsurprisingly impacted the team, but it is simply unacceptable that they have been averaging just 12 points per game with all of the talent at their disposal. As you might guess, that scoring output ranks dead last in the NFL, so it will be interesting to see if they have been able to use their week off to figure out how to get some points on the board.
They couldn’t ask for a much better matchup to receive immediately after the bye, going up against a banged-up Indianapolis Colts defense that is conceding 389.5 yards per game, which is 30th in the NFL. The Colts are being gashed on the ground, giving up the 31st most rushing yards with 155.2, and they are also vulnerable against the pass, ranking 26th in the NFL with 235 passing yards conceded per game. Tua will not be back for this game, but surely Mike McDaniel can find a way to put up points with Tyreek Hill, Jaylen Waddle, and Devon Achane going up against this lackluster defense.
Tyler Huntley is the man tasked with operating that loaded offense, but he has completed just 60% of his passes so far this year for 290 yards, zero touchdowns, and one interception. Dolphins fans will hope that he and Mike McDaniel have been busy cooking up a plan over the week off, as they will be desperate for some more entertaining football than what they have received so far.
For Indy, Anthony Richardson is set to return to the starting lineup after another unfortunate injury-fueled break. He is also boasting an underwhelming stat line on the season, having completed just 50% of his passes for 654 yards, three touchdowns, and six interceptions from his four games played. It is genuinely not a stretch to say that Joe Flacco gives this team the best chance to succeed at the moment, but Richardson’s development has to be the priority for Indianapolis.
The good news for the sophomore quarterback is that he has a very talented group of pass-catchers to utilize. Michael Pittman Jr. is a very good possession receiver, Josh Downs has been elite out of the slot since he returned from injury, and Alec Pierce is proving to be one of the most useful deep threats in the NFL. He might only get two or three targets per game, but catching just one of them can make a huge difference to the overall outcome. We haven’t even mentioned wide receiver Adonai Mitchell, who is getting lots of separation but doesn’t have the production to match just yet. You have to believe that his time will come.
The running back situation is a bit more up in the air, with both Jonathan Taylor and Trey Sermon seemingly set to miss with injury. That leaves Tyler Goodson as the next man up, who has barely been used throughout his two-year career so far. Nevertheless, in his limited sample size, he is averaging 5.9 yards per carry on the ground and has caught eight of his nine targets for 47 yards through the air. Richardson’s presence as a runner should make up for any drop-down in quality from Taylor to Goodson, but it will be interesting to see how head coach Shane Steichen decides to play things moving forward, considering his quarterback's tendency to get injured. The whole point of Richardson as a quarterback is that he can change the game with his legs, but can you still continue to prioritize that aspect of his game if he keeps having to head to the medical tent?
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Colts -3