Dolphins vs Texans Free Pick, NFL Free Picks, NFL Predictions 12/15/24
- J.A. Cavalier
- Dec 13, 2024
- 3 min read
Miami vs Houston (HOU -3, 46.5)
NFL ODDS, NFL PREDICTIONS, NFL PREVIEWS
Miami Dolphins vs. Houston Texans | Sunday, December 15, 2024
The Houston Texans were in desperate need of a bye week, having been pushed to the limit by a poor Jacksonville team in week 13, and beaten by an even worse Tennessee Titans team in week 12. Thankfully, despite suffering through injuries, bad offensive line play, and endless penalties, they emerge from the bye with a two-game buffer at the top of the AFC South, with just four games remaining.
The issues listed above have contributed to a lackluster sophomore campaign from quarterback CJ Stroud, who hasn’t had a passer rating of over 100 in any of the last seven games. The week of rest came at a great time for Stroud, who will hopefully have regrouped so that he can return to the gridiron with the confidence that made him so special as a rookie. Houston ranks 17th in the NFL with 221.2 passing yards per game, but Nico Collins is now firmly back in the lineup after his five-week break due to injury. He had eight catches for 119 yards in their last game before the bye, and you can be sure that CJ will be looking in his direction this weekend.
Miami are just outside of the top 10 when it comes to passing yards conceded per game, and their talented secondary is headlined by Jaylen Ramsey, who is still amongst the league’s best. That doesn’t necessarily matter for Nico Collins though, whose rare combination of size, speed, and power, makes him seemingly impossible to stop.
Running back Joe Mixon is another Houston playmaker who’s having a fantastic season, also coming off a 100-yard outing before the bye. He has 887 yards and 11 touchdowns on the season, but will be tested by a Miami front that is giving up the seventh-fewest rushing yards per game, with 105.6. Both Mixon and Collins are nearing the 1000-yard milestones for the season, despite both players missing games this year, and they will likely be the focus of the Houston game plan in this one.
Miami are coming off an emotional, intense victory over the division rival New York Jets, who pushed them all the way to overtime. Since returning to the lineup, Tua Tagovailoa has been amongst the league's very best quarterbacks, posting a passer rating of over 100 in each of his last four games. Those four games have produced 1,301 yards and 11 touchdowns, with no interceptions. Both Jaylen Waddle and Tyreek Hill have been much more involved in recent weeks, and it will be intriguing to watch them go up against a strong Texans outfit that is keeping opponents to the seventh-fewest passing yards per game, with 198.8, whilst also posting the second most sacks, with 42.
The one aspect of the Miami offense that has not worked well is the run game, with no running back averaging over 4.1 yards per carry on the season. The team ranks 24th in rushing yards per game, which doesn't bode well for this week, going up against a top-10 unit in Houston. If Miami are going to move the ball, expect it to come through Hill, Waddle, and the surprise superstar, Jonnu Smith.
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Game Total Over 46