Atlanta vs. Tampa Bay (ATL -2.5, 45.5)
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Atlanta vs. Tampa Bay | Sunday, October 27, 2024
This is a big Week 8 matchup for an advantage at the top of the NFC South between two 4-3 teams. The first meeting of this season between Atlanta and Tampa Bay went all the way into overtime, with the Falcons snatching the 36-30 win.
This time around, Atlanta has a chance to make it 2-0 against their most competitive division rival, while also looking to stretch their road record for this season to 3-0.
The key storyline in this one is the suddenly depleted offense for Tampa Bay, who lost both Mike Evans and Chris Godwin to injuries on Monday Night Football against the Ravens. Evans was already dealing with a hamstring injury and likely should have stayed sidelined on Monday, while Godwin suffered a nasty season ending ankle injury in garbage time late in the game.
That means that Baker Mayfield will now be without his top two targets indefinitely, with Evans expected back after the Week 11 bye, and Godwin out for the year. The Bucs don’t have a single wide receiver on the roster outside of those two with more than 100 receiving yards this year, which likely means turning to reliable targets in tight end Cade Otton and the running backs catching passes out of the backfield.
Prior to the injury, Tampa Bay had been one of the league's most effective scoring teams, ranking 4th in points per game (29.9), 5th in yards per game (383.4), 5th in yards per play (6.1), and number one in third down conversions (50.59%).
How the injuries at wide receiver will impact both Baker and the Bucs production as an offense is yet to be determined, but there will certainly be an impact.
On the plus side, the Bucs seem to have found a system that works with their running backs, rotating snaps with Rachaad White, Sean Tucker and rookie Bucky Irving. Irving has 67 carries on the season to White’s 61, with Sean Tucker offering a third option when they need fresh legs.
The Atlanta Falcons put 36 and 38 points on the board against the Bucs and Panthers respectively in Weeks 5 and 6, but slumped to just 14 against the Seattle Seahawks in last weekend's Week 7 loss.
Kirk Cousins did manage a stunning 509 passing yards and four touchdowns in that win over the Bucs just a couple of weeks ago, which should give the Falcons a lot of confidence going into this one. On the season, and as an offense, they sit in the middle of the pack across the board statistically. Their most notable number is the 251.1 passing yards per game, putting them 5th in the NFL, and Cousins arrival certainly seems to have helped unlock the potential in the likes of Kyle Pitts, and newly acquired wideout Darnell Mooney.
Raheem Morris’ unit has disappointed defensively though. They need better pass rushers, and without them are allowing the league's worst completion percentage, a whopping 72.15%. Considering the pieces they have added and paid in the secondary, the performance hasn’t lived up to expectations yet, something the Falcons will want to quickly correct if they truly believe themselves to be contenders this year.
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