Falcons vs Saints (ATL -3.5 O/U 46.5)
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Atlanta vs. New Orleans | Sunday, November 10, 2024
One of week 10's divisional matchups features one of the fiercest rivalries in the NFL, between the Saints and the Falcons, although it's fair to say some of the sting has been taken out of it in recent weeks. Late September saw Atlanta host a 2-1 New Orleans side, in a game chalked full of errors and turnovers. The Falcons came out on top in a sloppy win, saved by a walk-off 58-yard field goal from Younghoe Koo, which would turn out to be a flashpoint for both of these franchises in the 2024 season. New Orleans has gone 0-5 since, sitting at the bottom of the NFC South at 2-7, compared to Atlanta’s 4-1 in that same stretch, good for 6-3 as of week 9, best in the division.
New Orleans has since fired their head coach and seen many of their key players, including Derek Carr, Taysom Hill, Chris Olave, and Marshon Lattimore, struggle with injury, the latter of which was recently traded to Washington, all but triggering a rebuild. Rookie Spencer Rattler wasn’t exactly impressive in Carr’s stead, leaving many questions about the depth this team has across its roster. That’s not even to mention the season-ending injuries to Rashid Shaheed and Paulson Adebo, giving Saints fans a pretty bleak outlook on the upcoming season. Adebo will be missed, as the Saints have allowed the most YAC this season with a whopping 1,369, compared to Atlanta’s 936. The defensive line has been run all over so far in 2024, allowing the third most yards per attempt in the league at 5.1, and a league-worst 6 yards per offensive play.
The Falcons' defensive front hasn’t been the most impressive statistically either, with the fewest sacks in the league, remaining on the lower end in terms of QB pressure percentages as well. The secondary has been much more efficient, however, with the veteran Jessie Bates looking to be a real point of reference, stepping up in Atlanta’s most important games.
The Falcons’ offense is what should really trouble New Orleans. Kirk Cousins has come back from an Achilles tear and appeared to be at home in Mercedes-Benz Stadium, ranking in the top 10 for completions, passing yards, and touchdowns with the plethora of weapons at his disposal. Drake London and Darnell Mooney have been playing at career-best levels under the veteran signal-caller, both on track to pass 1,000 receiving yards this season, but don’t forget that Atlanta is also home to one of the most dynamic backfields. Bijan Robinson is the team’s leading rusher, with 632 yards for 4 touchdowns thus far, while continuing to have a huge impact in the passing game as well with over 300 yards through the air. Tyler Allgeier has been a red-zone threat all year long with his physicality, giving Raheem Morris yet another scoring weapon.
Drake London is questionable for Sunday’s game in New Orleans, while Derek Carr will be back for his second game since his oblique injury. Regardless, it’s tough to imagine a 2-win Saints side that just lost to the Panthers really taking the game to a Falcons team coming off a win against Dallas. There’s every reason to pick the Falcons here, but maybe this game will incite a change in fortunes for both teams just as it did in late September.
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Falcons -3.5