NBA: Nikola Jokic (Nuggets) OVER 27.5 Points
Good morning #PropNation! A new week breeds new opportunity and I am dishing out 3 value NBA plays today for free. The first is backing the same man who got us a plus money max play winner on Saturday night, Nikola Jokic. This time I see him going OVER 27.5 points against the Pacers tonight. Jokic got extremely frustrated on Saturday as the refs were pretty obviously favoring the Lakers early and I expect him to come into this matchup angry after a blowout loss. It’s the perfect bounce back spot for the Joker in a game that should feature very minimal defense and be a complete shootout, with the O/U sitting at 246 points. Jokic is averaging over 29 points/game on the season and the Pacers were a favorable matchup for him scoring the ball last season. In two games against Indiana he averaged 28 points and shot a ridiculous 78% from the field. I don’t need to hype the 3-time NBA MVP any more statistically, but suffice it to say the matchup is excellent and he should be aggressive tonight in a bounce back spot after posting just 12 points on Saturday. Lock in Jokic OVER 27.5 Points!
NBA: Ausar Thompson (Pistons) UNDER 12.5 Points
The next matchup that I like is a fade spot as the Pistons host the Clippers. I’ve talked about how much I enjoy watching the Thompson brothers play basketball but tonight I’m going with Ausar Thompson UNDER 12.5 points. He’s been flying above his season average of 9.4 points/game lately as he’s put up 13.8 PPG in February. However, the last 5 games have been against some of the worst defenses in the NBA and tonight they get the 4th ranked Clippers defense. Thompson also only played 17 minutes last night and will find it tough to get enough shot attempts in his minute share tonight to get to this number. My analytics are projecting him for 9 points tonight, a solid advantage on a line of 12.5. Give me an expected value edge of 30% ANY day of the week. Take Ausar Thompson UNDER 12.5 points for the second dub tonight!
NBA: Anthony Edwards (Timberwolves) UNDER 5.5 Assists
For the last matchup I can’t ignore the exciting back-to-back gym swap between the Timberwolves and Thunder tonight. The Thunder took care of business last night on the road and I expect them to dominate tonight at home. I LOVE the fade line here for Anthony Edwards to go UNDER 5.5 assists. Edwards averages 4.5 assists/game on the season and put up an outlier number of 7 assists in last night’s game. OKC is ranked 3rd in the NBA at limiting opponent assists, allowing just 23.8 assists/game at home. The key here is the road environment. Edwards dished 7 assists twice against the Thunder at home but what did he do on the road? He posted just 2 assists earlier this season and he’s without Rudy Gobert & Julius Randle, both whom can make easy buckets at the rim in the pick and roll game, eliminating some huge assist potential for Edwards. In order for Edwards to hit the over, the Timberwolves role players would have to be knocking down three pointer after three pointer tonight and I just don’t see that happening. The Thunder are the #1 defense in the NBA at defending the three. Watch Ant try to put up 50 tonight and struggle to get to 6 assists. I love the under here and it might even make my VIP card. Take Anthony Edwards UNDER 5.5 assists!
Check out YLose Handicapper Luke "Prop Master" Shuey every day as he breaks down Player Props and releases free picks for NFL, NBA, MLB as well as College Sports such as NCAA Football and NCAA Basketball on his daily podcast available anywhere you get your podcasts from. Ylose.com/props.