Gimme Props with Luke Shuey, NBA Picks, NBA Free Picks, NBA Predictions - 2/5/25
- Luke Shuey
- Feb 5
- 3 min read
NBA: De'Aaron Fox (Spurs) UNDER 6.5 Assists
Last night we went 1-2 on free props and are now 8-4 in the last 12 free plays. I’m looking at three value spots in the NBA tonight and start off with a hot topic and that is De’Aaron Fox’s first game as a Spur. It’ll be exciting to watch him hit the court for the first time with Wemby and company. I am a firm believer that chemistry on the court takes time and thus the best free prop value of the day is on Fox UNDER 6.5 Assists. This isn't a fade on Fox as a Spur going forward, but rather a fade on the situation statistically. It is unknown just how many minutes he’ll get and it’ll take time for him to gel in the offense. Fox averages 6.1 assists/game on the season and it would take a stellar performance to put up 7+ in his first game with a new team. He’s gone under this number in 5 of his last 6 games coming in. Look for him to be very passive in his first game acclimating to the new roster. The offense will not flow through him in Game #1 as a Spur. Lock in De’Aaron Fox UNDER 6.5 Assists for a winner!
NBA: Matas Buzelis (Bulls) OVER 10.5 Points
Onto the second free prop! I’m going with a player you likely haven’t heard of but I’ve been VERY impressed with: Matas Buzelis of the Chicago Bulls. He’s a 20-year old rookie averaging 5.8 PPG on the season. And we’re taking his OVER at 10.5 points?? Absolutely. And I love it. He’s been getting a lot more playing time as of late and is turning heads. Last night Buzelis had one of the most efficient nights of ANY player in the NBA all season. He went 10/10 shooting (4/4 from three), posting 24 points in 31 minutes. He’s now scored in double digits in 4 straight games, increasing his playing time in each of those 4 matchups. The youngster is 6’10 out of Lithuania and he’s not afraid to get his shot up. He can go inside and out. I expect him to be featured a bit tonight against Minnesota. One of my favorite things to do is follow opportunity-share and after a career-best game you know he’s coming in with all-time high confidence. He will get up at least 8-12 shot attempts and I like him to cover the line for us. Take Matas Buzelis OVER 10.5 Points and let’s all cash this ticket!
NBA: Ja Morant (Grizzlies) OVER 4.5 Rebounds
For the third and final free prop we go to the rebounds category so we wrap up with a free prop in each of the three main statistical categories.I am looking at Ja Morant of the Grizzlies to go OVER 4.5 Rebounds. Morant came back from injury on Monday night and played well in a victory over the Spurs. I like his rebounding line because his numbers are down this year but it’s a small sample size. His line is sitting at O/U 4.5 rebounds despite him averaging 5.6 or more rebounds for the last 3 years of his career. He’s facing a Raptors team that allows 6 rebounds/game to opposing point guards and is ranked 20th overall in rebounding. This line of 4.5 says it all when he only posted 2 rebounds in the one matchup against Toronto this year. Oddsmakers expect him to go for 5+ tonight and I’m following their tell here with a historically good rebounding point guard. Take Ja Morant OVER 4.5 Rebounds!
Check out YLose Handicapper Luke "Prop Master" Shuey every day as he breaks down Player Props and releases free picks for NFL, NBA, MLB as well as College Sports such as NCAA Football and NCAA Basketball on his daily podcast available anywhere you get your podcasts from. Ylose.com/props.