NBA: Jrue Holiday (Celtics) UNDER 17.5 PRA (pts, rebs, assts)
After going 2-1 last night our free play record extends to 10-5, hitting at 67% over the last 15 plays. Looking to keep momentum on the free card I have 3 nice spots here again in the NBA. First play I want you guys to take Jrue Holiday of the Celtics to go UNDER 17.5 PRA. Holiday averages 19.1 PRA per game this season but boy oh boy he has taken a backseat to the other four Celtics starters. Of course he plays a critical defensive role, but it’s crazy to see how little he is relied upon for offense when you consider he would likely be putting up 20 points/game on another roster. He just doesn’t get the shot attempts or usage rate to hit this number with consistency. Since Kristaps Porzingis has been back healthy Holiday's numbers have dropped even more. Holiday has gone under this line in 7 of his last 9 games and I see no reason to value anything but the under here. The only way he gets over is if he’s knocking down several open threes which hasn’t been the case as of late. I love this spot as the star players should dominate tonight in a potential blowout if Anthony Davis doesn’t suit up. Take Jrue Holiday UNDER 17.5 PRA!
NBA: Alperen Sengun (Rockets) OVER 19.5 Points
Onto the second big matchup of the night which is the Rockets visiting the Timberwolves. In this game I love backing Alperen Sengun to go OVER 19.5 Points. His line has already moved up a full point from this morning when it opened at O/U 18.5, signifying value on the over. Sengun looked better than anyone could have anticipated in his first game back from injury Tuesday night putting up 24 points and 20 rebounds in a tough loss to Brooklyn. After seeing his explosive numbers I feel very confident in his point production tonight. Sengun has faced the Timberwolves twice this year and wow does he like working against the less athletic Rudy Gobert. He put up 38 points last time out and 22 the time before. Sengun should get to the free throw line 6-8 times tonight which helps out the number as well. Amen Thompson and Jalen Green demand so much on-ball attention that things have really opened up for Sengun. I like him to go for 24+ tonight. Take Alperen Sengun OVER 19.5 Points!
NBA: Scoot Henderson (Trailblazers) OVER 21.5 PRA (pts, rebs, assts)
For the third and final free prop I am looking to back the Blazers offense and I’m locked in on Scoot Henderson to go OVER 21.5 PRA. Henderson is balling lately, averaging 27.3 PRA over his last 6 games. Confidence is high and his matchup couldn’t be any better. The Kings defense has been completely atrocious and likely won’t get any better tonight as they get acclimated to the new-look roster. They’ve allowed 130, 144, 143, and 132 points in 4 of their last 6 games. Portland has been playing solid basketball and Henderson is getting 25-30 minutes per game. He is more athletic than most players on the court tonight. Look for him to attack the rim and get out in transition. Lastly, in his one game against the Kings this season he went for 27 PRA and I have him projected for 24 or more tonight, a significant advantage on the posted line. Take Scoot Henderson OVER 21.5 PRA for another dub!
Check out YLose Handicapper Luke "Prop Master" Shuey every day as he breaks down Player Props and releases free picks for NFL, NBA, MLB as well as College Sports such as NCAA Football and NCAA Basketball on his daily podcast available anywhere you get your podcasts from. Ylose.com/props.