NBA: Ja Morant (Grizzlies) OVER 23.5 Points
A great Thursday night in the books has us on a 7-2 free play streak and we have been in the green (profitable) 10 of 13 days so far in March! 🤑 Onto today, let’s find some more winners for you all. For the first free play I love this Cavaliers and Grizzlies matchup to be a scoring frenzy. That means Memphis will likely have Ja Morant and Desmond Bane both putting up decent point totals tonight. Because of pure shot attempt likelihood I side with Ja Morant as the top play here over Bane. His points prop line is at O/U 23.5, a number he has gone over in 7 straight games. He goes over this number against most teams, let alone a high scoring Cavs matchup without Donovan Mitchell. Morant has been aggressive lately, averaging 28.8 points per game on 21 shot attempts per game so far in March. Because of the way he relentless attacks the paint Morant will also get to the line to add to his total tonight. Three pointers are bonus for him if he knocks any down, but he shouldn’t need that part of his game to get 25+ tonight. Lock in Ja Morant OVER 23.5 Points as the top free prop of the night!
NBA: Alperen Sengun (Rockets) OVER 10.5 Rebounds
A second matchup I love is Alperen Sengun of the Rockets to go OVER 10.5 Rebounds, currently listed at plus money! This prop has everything you look for in a value spot. We’ll start with line functionality. Sengun averages 10.3 rebounds per game on the year and has been going under this line with frequency as of late, averaging just 8 rebounds/game in March. However, oddsmakers post his line above his season mark because the Mavericks are a perfect matchup right now for opposing big men. They’re starting literally nobody that’s taller than 6’7 and are playing fast paced basketball, allowing 120+ points in 7 straight games. Dallas allows the 6th most rebounds per game of any team in the NBA and that number is only trending worse. They’re giving up rebounds to everyone: in their last game two guards (De’Aaron Fox and Devin Vassell) combined for 19 rebounds. As long as the Rockets stick to their lineup ratios and play their style of basketball with physical defense, I see Sengun flying over this number. To get it at plus money is an absolute bargain: Take Alperen Sengun OVER 10.5 Rebounds!
NBA: Kawhi Leonard (Clippers) UNDER 3.5 Assists
Onto the last free prop and we are going with an assists fade spot. I want you guys to take Kawhi Leonard to go UNDER 3.5 assists tonight against the Atlanta Hawks. Leonard has been getting super aggressive offensively lately and always looking for his own shot without Norman Powell in the lineup. He really lets James Harden do almost all the facilitating and creating ball movement while he finishes the offensive sets. Kawhi is only averaging 2.8 assists per game this season and he’s gone under this number in 5 of the last 6 games which is important because Powell has been out during this stretch. In his one matchup against the Hawks this season he only recorded 1 assist, although he was on a minutes restriction that night. I like Kawhi’s game and he’s a hell of a player, but he just doesn’t rack up assists with frequency. This season is the fewest assists per game he’s posted since 2017-2018 in San Antonio. Take Kawhi Leonard UNDER 3.5 Assists and let’s sweep the board!
Check out YLose Handicapper Luke "Prop Master" Shuey every day as he breaks down Player Props and releases free picks for NFL, NBA, MLB as well as College Sports such as NCAA Football and NCAA Basketball on his daily podcast available anywhere you get your podcasts from. Ylose.com/props.