NBA: Domantas Sabonis (Kings) OVER 16.5 Points
Good morning, #PropNation! It’s NCAA Tournament time and one of the most fun, exciting weeks of the year. Let’s keep the good times rolling entering the week on a 15-3 (83%) free play win streak and 12 of 16 days of March have been profitable for VIP clients. Three FREE player props in the NBA starts now. For the first play I really like Domantas Sabonis to go OVER 16.5 Points. When big name players come back from injuries it’s key to be patient. We saw Sabonis put up just 12 points on Friday night in his return against the Suns. Usually I’ll wait another game or two before backing players but the time is now for Sabonis. It was great to see him log 30+ minutes in his first game back and I expect more of the same tonight. Any game against the Grizzlies is usually a fast-paced scoring affair and tonight should be no different. He’s gone over this line in both games against Memphis and they are a bottom-10 team at defending the center position. Look for him to get some easy buckets against Edey and JJJ tonight. Lastly, it’s a nice buy-low spot for a guy that puts up 19.4 PPG on the season and is coming off injury to a new-feel roster. Lock in Domantas Sabonis OVER 16.5 Points for the first free dub!!
NBA: Jaxson Hayes (Lakers) OVER 5.5 Rebounds
Onto the second matchup which is a line I really want you guys to lock in ASAP, Jaxson Hayes OVER 5.5 Rebounds. I’m confident this line will shift towards 6.5 throughout the day. Hayes of course only averages 4.6 rebounds/game on the season, but his role has drastically increased with the trade of Anthony Davis and now Lebron James out with injury. The athleitc Hayes is manning the middle and has a lot of rebounding potential against an undersized Spurs team that’s not playing well without Wemby. Hayes opportunity share is massive tonight with him averaging 27.5 minutes per game over the last 5 games, He has gone over this line in 3 of the last 4 and 5 of the last 7 games, respectively. I have him projected for 8+ rebounds tonight, a major advantage on a line of 5.5. San Antonio allows 15 rebounds per game to opposing centers and ranks 23rd in overall rebounding, so Hayes should be able to secure 6 of them tonight. Lock in Jaxson Hayes OVER 5.5 Rebounds!
NBA: Tyrese Haliburton (Pacers) UNDER 20.5 Points
For the third and final free prop I’m shifting my focus to the a fade spot as the Timberwolves host the Pacers. Tyrese Haliburton is coming off a couple clutch performances against the Milwaukee Bucks but I don’t see him looking for his shot with frequency, or being efficient tonight in a tough matchup at Minnesota. The Timberwolves have sneakily been dominant on defense lately, ranking 3rd in the entire NBA over the last 10 games, allowing just 108 PPG. They have athletes across the board and now have Rudy Gobert back to protect the paint. To get to his number tonight Haliburton would likely have to catch fire from deep, and I just don’t see tonight being that type of game. One of the most important splits here is his performances in wins vs losses, it’s one of the most drastic differences I’ve ever seen for a top player. He averages 21.5 PPG in wins versus an abysmal 14 PPG in losses. That’s a 7.5 points/game difference accounting for 35% less production when his team loses. Tonight, Indiana is listed as a 7.5-point underdog and they’re expected to lose. I love this play: Take Tyrese Haliburton UNDER 20.5 Points!
Check out YLose Handicapper Luke "Prop Master" Shuey every day as he breaks down Player Props and releases free picks for NFL, NBA, MLB as well as College Sports such as NCAA Football and NCAA Basketball on his daily podcast available anywhere you get your podcasts from. Ylose.com/props.