NBA: Derrick White (Celtics) OVER 16.5 Points
Good morning, #PropNation! We are one day away from Opening Day in the MLB and I couldn’t be more jacked up. Baseball is the data analytics dream come true for handicappers and we are going to crush this season! But first, let’s sweep 3 free NBA plays tonight. The first play is to back Derrick White of the Celtics as they visit the Phoenix Suns. Boston will be playing without Jayson Tatum tonight, which leaves 27 pts, 9 rebs, and 6 assists per game to be made up for by the rest of the starting lineup. It is noteworthy that White is one of the major players to step up when Tatum or Brown are absent from the starting lineup. White does it all and in 6 games this season without Tatum playing he’s averaging 22 points per game. To get his line at 16.5 tonight is an absolute steal and I envision it getting to 17.5 or higher by tip. White is putting up 17.8 points/game in March and his number is sitting at his season average of 16.5 exactly. I love the over here for a guy that’s not afraid to chuck the three ball. Look for White to shoot 15+ times tonight, more than enough to get him to the number. Take Derrick White OVER 16.5 Points!
NBA: Kawhi Leonard (Clippers) UNDER 3.5 Assists
For the second free play I go to a fade spot in the assists category that has gotten us to the window multiple times this season. I love Kawhi Leonard to go UNDER 3.5 assists as the Clippers take on the Knicks. Leonard is averaging exactly 3 assists/game on the season and really hasn’t surpassed this number frequently. When he has, it’s only been by 1 or 2 assists for the most part, showing true value on the under consistently over time. This has a lot to do with James Harden who really runs the LAC offense. When Kawhi gets the rock he’s primarily looking to score. I think that will be the case again tonight at The Garden where all big name players like to put up large point totals when they can. Leonard is averaging the fewest assists/game since the 2017-2018 season and that was shortened due to injury. Look for him to score the rock tonight and maybe get an assist or two to Zubac in the paint. Lock in Kawhi Leonard UNDER 3.5 Assists!
NBA: Alex Sarr (Wizards) OVER 1.5 Made 3PT
For the last free spot I really love Alex Sarr of the Wizards as a smash spot on his three-pointers made line. It’s currently sitting at O/U 1.5 made threes for about even money and he is going to shoot 6-8 threes tonight according to my analytics. Middleton, George, and Smart are all out for Washington so he’s going to carry the main scoring load secondarily to Jordan Poole. Sarr has really picked up both his production and his offensive aggression down the stretch of his rookie season and I love backing him tonight. He’s averaging 2.1 made threes per game on 6 attempts in the month of March. Plus, he’s facing the current worst defense in the NBA which is that of the 76ers. Sarr’s expected point total is up tonight as his line is 4 points above his season average which just goes to show shot attempts will be there. We have followed line functionality to the window all season and nothing changes tonight. Take Alex Sarr OVER 1.5 Made 3PT!
Check out YLose Handicapper Luke "Prop Master" Shuey every day as he breaks down Player Props and releases free picks for NFL, NBA, MLB as well as College Sports such as NCAA Football and NCAA Basketball on his daily podcast available anywhere you get your podcasts from. Ylose.com/props.