NBA: Derrick White (Celtics) OVER 18.5 Points
Good morning! We recorded our 5th straight day of profit (12-3 on VIP plays) and 2-1 on free plays to keep this March hot streak rolling! More smoke coming tonight. Let’s dive in. The first free play I love tonight is oozing with quality line functionality, but it’s a spot that is affected by injuries. The Celtics play the Blazers at home and list Jaylen Brown, Jayson Tatum, Payton Pritchard, and Jrue Holiday as questionable. I believe books expect several of these guys to sit because they posted Derrick White’s point total at O/U 18.5 points, which is 2+ points above his season average. I love the way Derrick White plays the game and I love him in this spot. He’s their 4th leading scorer on the year and could potentially be the leading eligible scorer if everyone sits. Either way, his line has never been this high all season and the books are signaling a big game coming. He’s been scoring the rock consistently and shooting almost 47% from three since February 1st. My general advice here: wait to see how the Celtics injury report plays out and smack this line if two or more of those guys sit. I’m betting it either way because of the functionality and great spot with a guy who isn’t afraid to chuck the ball when he’s cooking. Lock in Derrick White OVER 18.5 Points!
NBA: Desmond Bane (Grizzlies) UNDER 23.5 Points
For the second free prop I LOVE Desmond Bane of the Grizzlies to go UNDER 23.5 points tonight against the OKC Thunder. Bane is coming off a nice 35 point outing but Ja Morant is off the injury report while Jaren Jackson, Jr. is now on it. I know the public is going to think the over is the spot here with Bane accounting for some of JJJ’s points. However, I see value in the under because of the matchup and the Thunder’s excellent perimeter defense. Bane has gone under this number in 4 straight games against OKC and has only scored 24 or more ONE time in his entire career against them. Multiple analytics platforms I use suggest a projected output of 19-20.5 points tonight which give us a nice advantage on the line of 23.5. Yes, this will be a high scoring game but the Grizzlies get out and run. But they don’t care who’s shooting the ball, they spread the love to the open man. Look for OKC to key on Bane and make it a struggle to get to 20 tonight. Take Desmond Bane UNDER 23.5 Points!
NBA: Ausar Thompson (Pistons) OVER 5.5 Rebounds
The last spot that I like has to be a rebounding total as we’ve been crushing them lately. Our top free play cashed again last night with Lebron James OVER 7.5 rebounds. Tonight, I’m looking at Ausar Thompson of the Pistons to be one of my favorite rebounding lines. Ausar is in line to play a lot tonight with Tobias Harris out and there will be TONS of rebounding potential against a Clippers team that is without Norman Powell and Kawhi Leonard. This is a Detroit Pistons line and I expect Ausar to play tons of minutes, flying all over the court. The other piece I love here is that Zubac will be keyed in on limiting Jalen Duren’s rebounding which leaves even more opportunity for guys like Thompson. Lastly, the line functionality here is great as Thompson averages just 5 rebounds/game on the season but his line is above this. My models are showing him projected for 7+ boards tonight. Look for him to grab a few early and hopefully cash this early in the 2nd half for us. Take Ausar Thompson OVER 5.5 Rebounds!
Check out YLose Handicapper Luke "Prop Master" Shuey every day as he breaks down Player Props and releases free picks for NFL, NBA, MLB as well as College Sports such as NCAA Football and NCAA Basketball on his daily podcast available anywhere you get your podcasts from. Ylose.com/props.