Jared Goff (Lions) OVER 1.5 Passing TDs
Mac Jones and Jared Goff. Combined what’d they do last week? Throw 7 interceptions. Ugly ass football. I do expect a bounceback game for the Lions offense in particular. Yes, they still won last week but they’ll be feasting on this Jaguars defense. To take advantage I think my favorite line here is to take Jared Goff OVER 1.5 Passing TDs. No doubt in my mind one of the top goals of Dan Campbell is to restore Goff’s confidence because they need him to make a Super Bowl run. They’ll be in the red zone plenty and he should get 2-3 passing TDs in this one. Goff has thrown 2+ touchdowns in 6 of his last 7 games, 86% of the time. Against this 2-8 team led by Mac Jones I couldn’t love this line more. No need to dive into more analytics with this one. Take Goff OVER 1.5 Passing TDs! Plug and play. Cash it!
Taysom Hill (Saints) UNDER 28.5 Rushing Yards
I’m going with a player here I normally don’t touch with props but I think the books are off here and the analytics back me up. I’m going Tight End/QB Taysom Hill to go UNDER 28.5 rushing yards. With Derek Carr back in the lineup Hill is used a bit less and he really hasn’t been effective running the ball. He’s been better in the passing game. He’s literally only surpassed this number one time this season back in Week 1 but since then the under has gone 5-0. Analytics are showing me a projected rushing total of 20-22 yards. About a 25% advantage on the books. Plus, Cleveland’s defense is slowly coming back around. They’re in the top half of the NFL in rushing numbers and I believe they’ll force Carr to throw the ball with the limited receiving options they have due to injuries. Love this play. Lock in Taysom Hill UNDER 28.5 Rushing Yards!
Christian McCaffrey (49ers) OVER 28.5 Receiving Yards
Last week was the big comeback of Christian McCaffrey and the question mark of how he’d look and how much he’d play. I knew better than to take his props. Just too much unknown and it showed. He carried the ball 13 times for just 39 yards but he was crazy effective in the passing game. Racked up 6 catches for 68 yards and I love him as a receiver again. Super buy low spot here at 28 & ½ yards. He’s also covered this line in 6 of 7 games dating back to last season. I mean for a guy who can go for 50-100 receiving yards and will get a minimum of 5+ targets I want to smack the shit out of this play. Give me check downs all day here and take Christian McCaffrey OVER 28.5 Receiving Yards!
Check out YLose Handicapper Luke "Prop Master" Shuey every day as he breaks down Player Props and releases free picks for NFL, NBA, MLB as well as College Sports such as NCAA Football and NCAA Basketball on his daily podcast available anywhere you get your podcasts from. Ylose.com/props.