De’Aaron Fox of the Kings to go OVER 24.5 points.
The reason I love this play is because Fox is only averaging 21.5 PPG this year and has gone for 25+ just once. Yet, oddsmakers post his line at 24.5 because of a great matchup. He should get up about 20 shot attempts tonight and will get better from 3-point range (so far he’s just 29%). Last year he averaged 26.6 points/game and he should get back to putting up 30+ with regularity. The most important factor here: I see him taking big time advantage of Trae Young being the primary defender for the Hawks. Atlanta ranks 2nd last in the NBA at defending the point guard position, giving up 30.2 PPG to opposing point guards. Have to love this as a spot for Fox to go off on a Friday night. Take De’Aaron Fox OVER 24.5 Points!
Cade Cunningham UNDER 5 & ½ rebounds
For the 2nd free prop tonight you guys should have a winner with . Yes, Cunningham is an athletic young 6’6 point guard, but he is facing a physical Knicks team. New York allows the 6th fewest rebounds to opposing point guards at just 5.1 per game and they rank 3rd in the NBA in rebounding overall. Cunningham has gone under this number in 3 of 5 games and remember he only averaged 4.3 boards/game last season. In 2 games against the Knicks last season this line went under both times as he had games of 2 and 5 rebounds. He’s not a true rebounding stat grabber. Not once did he ever put up double digit rebounds so there isn’t a high outlier risk here either. Lock in Cade Cunningham UNDER 5.5 Rebounds for a winner!
Take Nikola Jokic UNDER 8.5 Assists
For the 3rd and final free prop we head to the rematch of the Western Conference semifinals that went 7 games last year. The Nuggets and Timberwolves face off and I am taking a public fade here with Nikola Jokic’s UNDER on his assists line which I currently have at 8.5. We all know the Joker is the best big man in the business at being unselfish and finding the open man, he has put up triple doubles with a regularity we haven’t seen from a big man ever. But the books are giving us good value on the under here. Jokic is averaging 9.3 assists this season but the books put his line below this at 8.5. His average is carried by two big games but he also put up just 4 assists in two games this season. Let’s look at last year for a larger sample size. In 4 regular season games against Minnesota last year he only averaged 4.3 assists/game and in the 7-game series he was below this line as well with 7.9 per game. I love the matchup with Rudy Gobert and Julius Randle down low. !
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