Gimme Props with Luke Shuey, NBA Picks, NBA Free Picks, NBA Predictions, NFL Picks, NFL Free Picks, NFL Predictions 12/8/24
- Luke Shuey
- Dec 8, 2024
- 3 min read
Braelon Allen (Jets) OVER 53.5 Rushing Yards
What a night again for VIP clients going 9-4 with a profit margin of +80* on Saturday. We have 3 NFL free plays for you guys and always a chance to join the VIP team on a 7-day package linked below! Let’s dive in. First game for the 1pm EST slate I want you guys to look at the Jets vs Dolphins matchup and take Braelon Allen OVER 53.5 rushing yards. Allen is a beast of a rookie considering he’s literally the youngest player in the NFL at 20 years of age. He’s been a solid role player as a backup to Breece Hall, but he finally gets the keys to the car today with Hall out due to injury. I normally don’t play a lot of “fill in” props with guys out due to injury because it often draws public attention, but I don’t think the public is on this one since the Jets have been so bad and Allen is unknown by many. Allen is slowly proving his ability carrying the ball, even with Hall in the lineup. Earlier this season Allen had a 4-game stretch where he averaged 32 rushing yards and 4.8 yards/carry. With Hall out I think it’s a great value play to take the over here. Despite their struggles, this New York offense will still need to run the ball to have any chance against this Miami team trying to make a playoff push. The Dolphins give up 107 rushing yards/game on the year and I am confident Allen can put up half of that himself today. Lock in Braelon Allen OVER 53.5 rushing yards!
Colby Parkinson (Rams) OVER 7.5 Receiving Yards
For the second free prop we jump over to the afternoon slate where the Bills take on a Rams team in Los Angeles. Take Colby Parkinson (Rams TE) to go OVER 7.5 receiving yards. This might seem like a niche play at surface level but it’s great value. I am all over the Rams tight end Colby Parkinson today. He shares playing time with Davis Allen, but Parkinson secures more of the passing downs. Matthew Stafford has relied mostly on the wide receivers in the passing game this year but Parkinson’s prop line is SO low that I cannot pass it up. He can cover this with one catch, which he’s done the last 3 games. Better yet let’s look at the larger sample size. Parkinson has gone over this line in 10 of his 12 games played this season, or 83% of the time. He averages 21 receiving yards/game and 9.8 yards/catch. It’s not entirely clear why McVay and Stafford have looked to Parkinson less often as of late, considering he got 13 targets in Week 5 against the Packers. I really think he gets more looks the rest of the season as they need a tight end threat if they’re heading to the playoffs. Let’s cash this bet in the first quarter and enjoy a no sweat victory. Take Colby Parkinson OVER 7.5 receiving yards!
Justin Herbert (Chargers) UNDER 0.5 Interceptions
For the third and final free prop we are backing the Chargers quarterback Justin Herbert on Sunday Night Football to not throw an interception. Herbert has been statistically incredible in this category so far in 2024. He has literally thrown just 1 interception in 336 pass attempts. Herbert is being efficient and smart with the ball, moving around the pocket and scrambling when necessary to extend plays. Kansas City has a very solid defense, but they rank 22nd at forcing interceptions. Obviously, this bet can lose on a tipped ball or one bad decision, but the numbers back up our side and Herbert just hasn’t put himself in many bad positions this season. He isn’t afraid to throw the ball away or take a sack if needed. You can still get this line somewhat close to even money and that is something I just can’t have you guys pass up on. This bet has cashed in 14 of Herbert’s last 15 games, or 93% of the time during that stretch. Just incredible value for a guy playing the best football of his career. Lock and load. Take Justin Herbert UNDER 0.5 Interceptions!
Check out YLose Handicapper Luke "Prop Master" Shuey every day as he breaks down Player Props and releases free picks for NFL, NBA, MLB as well as College Sports such as NCAA Football and NCAA Basketball on his daily podcast available anywhere you get your podcasts from. Ylose.com/props.