Gimme Props with Luke Shuey, NBA Picks, NBA Free Picks, NBA Predictions, NFL Picks, NFL Free Picks, NFL Predictions 12/12/24
- Luke Shuey
- Dec 12, 2024
- 3 min read
Jalen Duren (Pistons) UNDER 19.5 PRA (pts, rebs, assts)
Another nice night of free props smacking the 2-man parlay and VanVleet going way under for a 2-1 night. More smoke tonight and we start in the NBA with the Pistons vs Celtics matchup. I like Jalen Duren to go UNDER 19.5 PRA (pts, rebs, assts). Last time he played Boston just a week ago he got shut down and produced just 12 PRA in 25 minutes. I don’t expect things to be any easier as he’s facing the likes of Al Horford and Kristops Porzingis. Duren’s rebounding numbers are way down the last 4 games and there’s no reason to believe that changes tonight. This is important: statistically, the Celtics DOMINATE the opposing center position defensively. They rank 3rd in the NBA at limiting opposing centers scoring, 5th in rebounding, and 3rd in assists. That means to cash the over tonight Duren would need an anomaly performance and to outplay the rest of the NBA centers. Not happening. Fade him with us tonight and take Jalen Duren UNDER 19.5 PRA. Let’s cash!
Herbert Jones (Pelicans) OVER 3.5 Rebounds
For the second free prop I like Herbert Jones of the Pelicans to go OVER 3.5 rebounds! Jones is averaging 3.4 rebounds/game but those numbers are down from his previous 3 NBA seasons. With no Zion Williamson Jones’ 6 foot 7 frame puts him in position to grab a few boards. I like to wait to back players returning from injury for a few games and he now has 3 games under his belt, increasing his minute share in every game so far. He should be getting 35-40 minutes tonight and plenty of opportunities for rebounds in a game expected to be high scoring. New Orleans really doesn’t have a backup center so if Yves Missi gets in foul trouble while guarding Sabonis (very possible), they might have to play small ball which also favors Jones here. Lock this one in as the analytics project him for 4.5, a nice advantage over the line. Take Herbert Jones OVER 3.5 Rebounds!
Kyren Williams (Rams) OVER 17.5 Rushing Attempts
Onto the final free prop. Let’s smash! I am going to the NFL and Thursday Night Football where the Rams take on the Niners in a huge matchup for playoff implications. I like Sean McVay to pound the rock and for Kyren Williams to go OVER 17.5 rushing attempts. The Rams recipe to success starts on the ground to open up play action and Williams is their workhorse. He’s accumulated 18+ carries in 8 of their 13 games this season and is coming off his season high 29 rushing attempts against the Bills in their big win Sunday. Williams has racked up the 2nd most rushing attempts in the NFL this season and there’s no slowing down with the playoff race looming. The Rams faced off against San Francisco earlier this season in Week 3 and it was clear running the ball was a priority with Williams posting 24 carries for 89 yards. The other factor here is that the 49ers have not been good at stopping the run in 2024. They allow 115 rushing yds/game and this has been exponentially worse the last few weeks, allowing 152/game over the last 3 games. I like the Rams to heavily focus on incorporating Williams from the start. Take Kyren Williams OVER 17.5 Rushing Attempts!
Check out YLose Handicapper Luke "Prop Master" Shuey every day as he breaks down Player Props and releases free picks for NFL, NBA, MLB as well as College Sports such as NCAA Football and NCAA Basketball on his daily podcast available anywhere you get your podcasts from. Ylose.com/props.