Cardinals vs Packers
So we’ve given out back to back free play winners in Green Bay games with Aaron Jones torching them 2 weeks ago and Josh Jacobs going over his rushing total last week. This time around in the Cards/Packers matchup you think I’m going with an over or under. I’ve gotta give out an over. Nah I’m Just messin JA, you know I’m an unders guy when there’s value. If it ain’t broke don’t fix it!. So I’ve got another UNDER lock for ya. I expect the line to move 3-7 yards by Sunday. Tucker Kraft, Packers tight end. He’s born to be a Green Bay Packer. There’s pictures out there of this small town South Dakota boy drinkin busch light, smokin heaters. Bread to be in Wisconsin. Now I give him credit. He does a lot with not the best God given talent. That being said people are all over him and inflated his yardage line because of his big week last week as he put up 88 yards and 2 touchdowns including a 66 yard catch. Public play on the over. Sharp side with us under. He’s gone under 41 & ½ yards in 3 of 5 games and would’ve last week other than his outlier 60 yarder. Kraft is normally not a big play guy and Arizona defends the tight end position decently. I want you guys to lock that in and cash: Take Tucker Kraft UNDER 41.5 receiving yards.
Eagles vs Browns
The play I love in this game is at the running back position. Neither Cleveland nor the Eagles have looked particularly good this year but the Browns offense looks disgusting. People are calling for Famous Jameis Winston to take over for Deshaun. Regardless of what happens there, we like Jerome Ford to have a decent workload running the ball. His line is low potentially because people know the long awaited return of Nick Chubb is near. We’ve seen the videos of him on the practice field. He looks great and like the beast we’ve come to know. But we think the Browns play this conservatively. Ford should get the bulk of carries this week. He’s actually been playing well. Ford averages 5.2 yds/carry and has gone over 42 yards in 4 of his 5 games. On small rushing attempt numbers since they’ve been playing from behind literally almost all season. Look for Cleveland to hammer the rock early against a Philly defense allowing 130 rushing yards/game and ranking 21st in the NFL. We have Ford projected for about 50-55 yards on the ground. A huge advantage and yet another sharp play here. Take Jerome Ford OVER 41.5 Rushing yards and thank me later!
Steelers vs Raiders
You talk about a fun game to find a value prop! The total in this one is just 36.5 so it would be tough sledding on some of the stat overs. Thus we hammer an under here but it’s one I really do like and is backed statistically. Justin Fields looked nuts the first few weeks managing the Steelers offense on their way to 3-0. Now he’s coming off 2 straight losses and the whispers are coming in about when Russell Wilson will be given his shot. Fields has a passing yards line of 189.5 which may seem low in today’s NFL but it’s low for good reason. Las Vegas only gives up 201 passing yds/game and trust me they aren’t going to give up big air yards against Fields, who historically struggles to find consistency passing the ball. Pittsburgh is going to hammer the rock against a bad Raiders run defense. Fields has gone under this number in 3 of his 5 games and in 2 of them he was WAY under posting just 117 and 131 yards. Last week we saw his completion % drop to 55% against Dallas. He knows he could get taken out for Russell at any point now. High stress throws. He’s going to be safe and game manage. Lock in Justin Fields UNDER 189.5 passing yards
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