So, you probably already filled out your NCAA tournament bracket. That's fine, but you might want to tear it up and start over. If you really want to win, whether it's the ESPN Bracket Challenge or just your regular office pool, you need to have a strategy. One that works.
We all love sitting around and picking upsets. It's why we love the tournament. Watching a team like Mount St. Mary's or Norfolk State pull off the unthinkable. The thing is, when it comes to winning a bracket contest, no one gives a shit. Your one or two correct upset picks in the first round of the tournament get you a whopping one point each.
Where it counts is at the end of the tournament. That's why we do this...
Start at the End
Go to your Final Four picks and make them first. Pick your champion and then start working backwards. There are plenty of reasons why you should start here. One, everybody loves getting all hot and bothered over which No. 12 is going to upset a No. 5 or which 13 seed is going to win a game.
No one gives a shit. Great, you picked a first-round upset. You get a whopping one point. Don't get me wrong, I love that stuff too. It's why we love the NCAA tournament, but it really does you no good when it comes to winning a bracket contest. That's because you get more points at the end of the tournament.
You'll get 1 points for each correct pick in the first round and 2 points for each correct pick in the second. Point totals then double each round - 4, 8, 16, and if you pick the correct champion you'll get 32. That's why you start at the end.
The Thing About Upsets
This has been studied over and over. The average number of upsets in a given NCAA tournament is 12. That's for the entire tournament. Now, it also helps to define an upset. For our purposes, an upset is a game won by a team seeded at least two spots lower than its opponent. For example, a No. 10 seed beating a No. 7 seed is an upset. A No. 9 seed defeating a No. 8 seed is not.
Since the NCAA expanded the tournament field to 64 in 1985, the average number of first-round upsets is six. In each successive round, the number of upsets is typically cut in half. That means you may have three upsets in Round 2 and one of two in the Sweet Sixteen.
Setting Your Final Four
We all love the San Diego State's and Florida Atlantic's making the Final Four as No. 5 and No. 9 seeds. Here's the thing. It doesn't happen that often. Most teams seeded lower than No. 6 never make it this far.
In the last 38 NCAA tournaments, there are 17 occasions in which a team seeded lower than No. 6 made it to the Final Four. Last year, it was No. 11 NC State. If you want to win your bracket, picking a random 11-seed is probably not wise.
It's the same with picking your champion. Villanova won the 1985 national title as a No. 8 seed. It was the first year the NCAA seeded all of the brackets. Since then, the lowest seed to win a national championship was UConn as a No. 7 seed in 2014. Since then, seven No. 1 seeds and one No. 2 seed have won national titles. UConn won another title in 2023 as a No. 4 seed.
Bottom line: a No. 1 through No. 4 seed is more likely to make it to the Final Four.
Easy on the Upsets
Don't pick too many upsets. With an average of 12 upsets per tournament, that means 19 percent of games (12 of 63) are upsets. Keep in mind only two No. 1 seeds ever lost in the first round (Purdue & Virginia) and only 11 No. 2 seeds ever lost their first game.
If you're looking for upsets, the first-round game that produces the most is the No. 7-No. 10 game. Since 1985, 62 No. 10 seeds have won a first round game. Last year, Colorado won a play-in game, then won its first-round game against Florida.
Typically, No. 10 seeds are either a very good mid-major program or a Power conference team that played a ton of great competition. Look at this year's No. 10s - New Mexico, Utah State are strong mid-major programs. Arkansas and Vanderbilt came out of the SEC, the toughest conference in college basketball.
Advancing Through the Bracket
Remember, the number of upsets decreases with each round. It's worth noting that the No. 6 seed has beaten the No. 3 seed 31 times since 1985. Last year, Clemson beat Baylor in the only No. 3-No. 6 matchup of the tournament. It was actually the second straight tournament that Baylor lost a 3-seed.
The No. 7 seed has defeated the No. 2 seed 27 times since 1985. Historically, at least one No. 2 and one No. 3 are both going to lose in the second round of the tournament. Your job is to figure out which one or ones.
Good luck! Hope these tips help. Be on the lookout for all of my NCAA tournament picks. I'll serve up a few Quick Picks each day of the tournament as well as my best bets.
Ylose expert Coach Rick Bowe delivers his daily Quick Picks. The Coach continues to roll up big wins in college basketball, college football, the NFL, MLB and much more. Coach Rick offers a unique perspective to handicapping. Check out his daily free picks right here and jump on his daily Best Bets, which you can find right here at Ylose.com/coach.