Detroit vs Minnesota (Min -1.5, 50.5)
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Lions vs. Vikings | Sunday, October 20, 2024
The NFC North has quickly emerged as the very best division in the whole of football. The Minnesota Vikings, who are coming off their bye, stand clear at the top with the only unbeaten record in the NFC, followed by this week's opponents, the Detroit Lions, who have a 4-1 record and are coming off a remarkable game in which they humiliated the Dallas Cowboys in their own building. With the Chicago Bears and Green Bay Packers also sitting on four wins, every game is crucial for the NFC North teams.
It is incredible that we find ourselves in this position, given how the season started for Minnesota. When JJ McCarthy was ruled out for the season due to a knee injury, fans had to settle on the fact that they would be watching Sam Darnold under center for the entire season. Now, people did have high hopes for Darnold in Kevin O’Connell’s system, but nobody expected this. Sam has completed 63.5% of his passes for 1,111 yards, 11 touchdowns, and four interceptions, helping the Vikings put up 27.8 points per game, which is sixth-best in the NFL.
What is even more impressive is the fact that these performances have come against strong defenses in the 49ers, Texans, and Jets, a division rival in the Packers, and a surprisingly strong defense in the Giants. Sam Darnold is here to stay and his offense is only getting stronger around him. Justin Jefferson is obviously doing what we expect from him, Jordan Addison has been very good since his return from injury, and TJ Hockenson is still to be added to the tight end room. The fact of the matter is, this offense has been rolling, and there are still upgrades to come.
Detroit will be no pushover on defense, but they have given up the fifth-most passing yards per game this year, with 246.2. There have been improvements to their secondary, with Kerby Joseph and Brian Branch having 14 passes defensed between the two of them, but this has still been an attackable unit. Things are only going to get harder moving forward as well, because the team has just lost the NFL’s sack leader, Aidan Hutchinson, who suffered a devastating leg injury against the Cowboys. He already had 7.5 sacks on the season and was on the way to putting together a Defensive Player of the Year campaign, but his injury is a significant blow. When you add in the fact that Marcus Davenport is also out for the year, it is fair to wonder where the Lions' pass rush is going to come from now, which will also make life harder for the secondary.
This is particularly concerning this weekend, going up against a well-rested Vikings team with a loaded group of pass catchers.
When Detroit is on offense, we know that they want to run the ball, with both Jahmyr Gibbs and David Montgomery already tallying over 340 yards each, and with nine touchdowns between them. Brian Flores’ Minnesota defense has a reputation for being one of the most confusing units to pass on, so we should expect another heavy dose of this daunting running back duo.
Jared Goff will have no concerns about relying on his running backs, having completed just 18 passes in each of his last three games, which has still amounted to 806 passing yards, seven touchdowns, and one interception. The Lions are built to run, but the Vikings have given up the second-fewest yards to opposing run games, with just 67.2 yards per game. This is a real strength-on-strength clash, and it will be fascinating to see who comes out on top.
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Sam Darnold OVER 238.5 Passing Yards