NY METS @ ATLANTA (ATL -180, 7.5)
MLB ODDS, MLB PREDICTIONS, MLB PREVIEWS
METS @ BRAVES 9/25/24
The Atlanta Braves won Game 1 of this series last night behind seven strong innings from P Spencer Schwellenbach who allowed just one run on three hits. Michael Harris II had three hits for the Braves, including a solo homer and an RBI double. Harris would finish one triple shy of the cycle for the night.
Now, it’s Atlanta ace Chris Sale’s turn to take on the Mets who currently have control of the National League’s final wild card berth. The Dodgers have clinched a playoff berth and San Diego and Arizona are No. 1 and 2 in the NL wild card race. With the win last night, the Braves are now one game behind the Mets.
Sale has allowed 2 or fewer earned runs in 20 straight starts. He is now 18-3 with a 2.38 ERA and is the frontrunner to win the NL MVP. The Braves have won 8 of his last 9 starts, including the last two in which Sale got double-digit run support.
That may very well happen again as the Braves face Mets P David Peterson. The left-hander has allowed 4 ER in 2 of his last 3 starts. New York has lost each of Peterson’s last three starts. Somehow, Peterson has made it through the bulk of the 2024 season without blowing up too much. It seems to be starting though.
Peterson is 9-3 this season and he has a very strong 3.08 ERA. However, his xERA is 4.82 which suggests that Peterson is due for some negative regression. It’s starting as Peterson managed just 3.2 innings in his last start against the Phillies. He gave up 8 hits and 5 runs, 4 of which were earned.
The Braves have won 5 of their last 6 games. They have had great success against the Mets, going 11-3 SU in the last 14 games against them. The Under has also been trending in Braves games. The Under has cashed in 14 of the last 18 Braves’ home games. Six of the last eight in the series have also gone Under the total.
Get free MLB Picks and MLB Predictions for the top games on the weekly 2024 MLB schedule from JA Cavalier, one of the industry's premier expert MLB handicappers. J.A. Cavalier has been bringing the MLB betting community the best MLB free picks and predictions for nearly three decades. Visit daily for the best MLB moneyline and run line odds and game totals.
Coach Rick Bowe Free Picks
FREE PICK: METS-BRAVES UNDER 7.5
With Sale on the mound, the Under is always in play. He’s allowed just 2 ER or less in 20 straight starts. The Over cashed in Sale’s last two starts. That’s because the Braves went off for double-digit runs in both games. The Under hit in the four starts prior to those two. Peterson has only given up more than 2 ER twice in his last 10 starts. The Under has cashed in 5 of the last 7 between these two.
FREE PICK: ROYALS-NATIONALS UNDER 8
Michael Lorenzen hasn’t allowed a run in his last two starts and he’s got a 3.43 ERA for the season. His ERA in September is 1.68 and he’s in great form. The Nats are 24th in MLB in runs per game. DJ Herz was pitching well until he blew up for 7 runs in his last start against the Mets. Prior to that he had given up 2 or fewer ER in 9 of 10 starts. He’ll get back to that form tonight and help keep this total Under.
FREE PICK: CARDINALS-ROCKIES OVER 10.5
Austin Gomber starts for the Rockies and he’s had a tough go in September. He’s given up a ton of hits, 20 in three starts, and he just gave up 5 ER, including 3 homers, in a loss to Arizona. He’s pitched against St. Louis once this year and he gave up 4 ER, though the game was at Busch Stadium. Erick Fedde starts for the Cardinals. He’s pitched well as of late - 2.87 ERA in September - but this is Coors Field.