SEC TOURNAMENT 2ND ROUND
ARKANSAS vs. OLE MISS (OLE MISS -3.5, 144.5)
OLE MISS -3.5
Arkansas was able to hang on and beat South Carolina yesterday 72-68. The Hogs held a sizable lead, watched it evaporate, and then held on to advance to today. Arkansas is clearly on the bubble as far as the NCAA tournament is concerned. I don't think they'll get off that bubble today.
Ole Miss enters today's game as the better team, the more rested team. They have a win over Arkansas already this season. The Razorbacks score most of their points from 2PT range. Ole Miss defends the 2PT as well as any, allowing opponents only 43 percent of their points from 2.
The Rebels take care of the ball. They actually have the lowest turnover rate in the country and, on the other end, they take it away at a high rate as well. In that first meeting against the Razorbacks, Ole Miss held Arkansas to 21.7% shooting from three and 37.3% shooting overall in a seven-point victory. I think we see a similar game play out today.
WAC TOURNAMENT SEMIFINAL
TARLETON STATE vs. CAL BAPTIST (CBT -5.5, 127.5)
CAL BAPTIST -5.5
This is a fade of a Tarleton State team that is absolutely horrible on the road. Tarleton State won 12 games this season. Two of those wins were away from home. One came in an early-season neutral site game against a Hofstra team that wound up 15-18 this season. The other was the Texans only true road game victory this season. That came at Southern Utah, one of the two worst teams in the WAC.
Tarleton State has serious issues on offense. They play an aggressive defense, but on offense the Texans turn the ball over more than any other team in the country. When they play on the road, their turnover numbers are even worse.
Cal Baptist won each of its last three games of the season. One of those was an easy 20-point win over this same Tarelton State team. Expect a similar result tonight.
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