NIT FIRST ROUND
SAMFORD @ GEORGE MASON (GM -7.5 148.5)
OVER 148.5
George Mason finished the season 26-8 and lost in the Atlantic-10 championship game to VCU. Samford finished third in the Southern Conference. The Bulldogs finished with an overall record of 22-10.
Samford likes to play fast. They rank 21st in the nation in possessions per game. That, in turn, is why they are tied for 12th in the nation in scoring averaging 83.5 points per game. George Mason is one of the best defensive teams in the country holding opponents to 63.1 points per game. That's the 12th-best number in the country.
The Bulldogs are not very good on defense. They rank outside the top 200 in scoring defense and they tend to foul a lot. That's not good against anyone and definitely not good against a George Mason team that shoots over 70 percent from the free throw line.
This game will be a contrast of styles. Samford will try to push the pace on offense and George Mason will do what it can to slow it down. In the end, I think both teams score. Samford will get its transition points and threes and George Mason will likely have plenty of opportunities at the free throw line. Four of the last five Samford games and 5 of the last 7 for George Mason have all cashed on the Over. I think this one does too.
NCAA TOURNAMENT
AMERICAN vs. MOUNT ST. MARY'S (AMER -2.5, 129)
AMERICAN ML
American won the Patriot League tournament earning the program's fourth trip to the Big Dance since 2014. Mount St. Mary's won the Metro Atlantic Athletic Conference after finishing fourth in the regular season standings. MSM won 10 of its last 13 games and they did it with defense. They had to because their offense isn't very good.
One of the Mountaineers biggest issues is taking care of the basketball. They aren't very good in the backcourt which is why MSM ranks 359th in the nation in turnover rate. That's not good playing against anyone, but it's especially not good against an American team that led the Patriot League in forced turnovers.
The Eagles also brought back the most minutes from last year of any team in all of Division I. That experience plus the fact that American shoots 75.8 percent from the free throw line are why I like the Eagles to win a close game tonight.
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