NCAA TOURNAMENT
BYU vs. ALABAMA (ALA -5.5, 175.5)
BYU OVER 82.5
This could be the most entertaining game of the entire tournament. There will be tons of offense. Both teams like to get up and down the floor and they are essentially mirror images of each other. They attack the rim and/or they shoot a ton of threes. As a result, you have Alabama as the No. 1 scoring team in the country averaging 91.2 points per game. BYU ranks No. 21 in scoring averaging 81.4 ppg.
Both defenses also give up some points. They each will allow teams to shoot from outside. Alabama allows opponents to shoot 32 percent from three-point range. BYU allows 35 percent from behind the arc. On the offensive end, the Cougars have had the hot hand. Since Feb. 1, BYU is shooting 37.5 percent from three. They have gone Over 82.5 points in 7 of their last 10 games. They went Over 90 in 5 of them. With tonight's pace, I expect they hit this team total.
NCAA TOURNAMENT
TEXAS TECH vs. ARKANSAS (TT -5.5, 148.5)
TEXAS TECH -5.5
Arkansas pulled off two of the bigger upsets of the 2025 NCAA tournament. They beat Kansas and St. John's to reach the Sweet 16, but this is where the Razorbacks journey ends. Texas Tech shot just 14 percent from three-point range but still managed to beat Drake by 13 points in a second-round game. That is how good the Red Raiders are.
In the latest KenPom rankings, Texas Tech is No. 8. They rank No. 5 in Offensive Efficiency and they are a top 50 scoring defense allowing opponents 67.6 points per game. They played the first two games of the tournament without one of their best players, Chance McMillian. He is listed as a game-time decision for Texas Tech tonight. If they have him, that's an even bigger advantage for the Red Raiders as McMillian averages over 14 points per game and shoots 44 percent from behind the arc.
Don't expect Texas Tech to shoot as poorly from three-point range as it did against Drake. The Red Raiders actually rank No. 21 in the nation in 3PT FG percentage (37.8%). Texas Tech head coach Grant McCasland has coached five NCAA tournament games in his career - 3 with North Texas and 2 with Texas Tech. His teams are 4-0-1 ATS and covered those games by an average of 13.2 points.
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