NCAA TOURNAMENT
MICHIGAN STATE vs. OLE MISS (MSU -3.5, 144)
UNDER 144
Michigan State is the best 3PT defense in the country. The Spartans hold teams to just 28 percent from behind the arc. Michigan State is also a Top 15 defense in eFG% as well as Defensive Efficiency. The Spartans are also one of the better rebounding teams in the country.
On the other end, Ole Miss head coach Chris Beard is one of the better defensive coaches in the game. His Rebels played some high scoring games this season in the SEC and the NCAA tournament. They just beat Iowa State 91-78 in the second round of the tourney. Despite playing a number of high scoring games, the Rebels still rank No. 21 in the nation in Adjusted Defensive Efficiency.
Seven of Michigan State's last 10 games have landed on a total that was less than 144 (tonight's game total). Ten of MSU's last 12 games have gone Under the total. I think tonight's game will be more of a defensive battle and I like the total going Under.
NCAA TOURNAMENT
KENTUCKY vs. TENNESSEE (TENN -4.5, 144.5)
TENNESSEE ML
The third time's a charm, or so they say. Kentucky has beaten Tennessee twice already this season. The Wildcats shot 12-of-24 from three-point range in each game against the Volunteers. Don't expect that again. Tennessee ranks third in the nation in Opponent 3PT FG Percentage. The Vols hold teams to 28.3 percent shooting from long range.
On the other end, Tennessee shot just 14-of-64 from three-point range in the two losses to Kentucky. Don't expect that again either. The Vols are a decent three-point shooting team hitting 35 percent of their shots from deep. Plus, the Kentucky defense leaves a lot to be desired. The Wildcats rank 315th in the nation in scoring defense allowing 77 points per game.
While the Wildcats can surely keep this close, Tennessee has a deeper bench and is more experienced. The Vols have struggled under head coach Rick Barnes at this point in past tournaments. This year, they at least get this one right.
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