IOWA @ UCLA (IOWA -5.5, 44.5)
OVER 44.5
Since 2021, Iowa has closed with a total of 45 or higher just twice. Both of those games were against Ohio State. Tonight's total at 44.5 is where I see value. Iowa currently ranks fourth in the Big Ten in scoring, averaging right around 31 points per game. The defense is still strong, but does give up 20 points per game.
UCLA's offense has had its struggles this season, but over the last two weeks the Bruins have played well. UCLA won its last two games, scoring 35 and 27 points in those games. Both games went Over the total.
Eight of Iowa's nine games this season have gone Over the total. When the Hawkeyes have been favored this season, the Over is a perfect 8-0. Each of Iowa's last four games cleared tonight's number with ease.
RICE @ MEMPHIS (MEM -7.5, 51)
RICE UNDER 21.5 POINTS
Both of these teams were involved in upsets last week. Rice upset Navy 24-10 in a game that was delayed for five hours due to weather. Memphis led UTSA 24-14 in the second quarter before finding itself on the wrong end of a 44-36 upset loss. The bottom line here is that Rice isn't nearly as good as it played last week and Memphis isn't as bad as it was in the second half against UTSA.
Memphis's run defense is one of the better units in the country. The Tigers should force Rice into several undesirable situations. Rice only converts 34 percent on third down and the Owls are just 15-for-28 on trips to the red zone. Of those 15 conversions, 5 of them came against an FCS team. Rice has only cleared 21.5 points 3 times in 9 games this season. On the road, they have struggled to score, putting up 10, 10, 14, and 7 in their road games this season.
VCU vs. BOSTON COLLEGE (VCU -9.5, 142.5)
VCU -9.5
This game is part of the Veterans Classic being played in Annapolis, Md. VCU got off to a good start this season with an 84-65 win over Bellarmine, which is a pretty good Atlantic Sun program. BC won its opener, but only beat the Citadel 69-60.
It's most likely a down year for Boston College. VCU returns a ton of talent from a team that last year ranked in the Top 50 in Adjusted Defensive Efficiency. They are also very good on the glass. The Rams are No. 45 in the latest KenPom rankings compared to No. 146 for BC. VCU has three senior guards led by Max Shulga, who had 19 in the season opening win.
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