NY YANKEES @ LA DODGERS (LAD -125, 8.5)
YANKEES ML
It's Game 1 of the World Series and Gerrit Cole will take on Jack Flaherty. Of the two, I trust Cole and the Yankees relievers more than Flaherty and the Dodgers. In his last 5 starts, Cole is 3-0 with a 1.96 ERA. More importantly, the Yankees won all 5 of those games. If you look at Flaherty's last 5 starts, you have Game 1 of the NLCS where he pitched 7 innings of scoreless baseball. Then, you have 4 other games where he gave up 8, 4, 3, and 3 earned runs. His ERA in those games was 6.15.
Plus, you have a Dodgers team that relied heavily on its bullpen throughout the NLDS and NLCS. Those relievers did get four days off, but the Yankees bullpen is better rested. New York has won 6 of its last 7 games and 7 of its last 8 on the road. Playing on the road in Game 1 won't phase them. I'll back the better pitcher and the better bullpen.
LOUISVILLE @ BOSTON COLLEGE (LVL -7.5, 53)
OVER 53
Both of these teams need to right their respective ships and do it quickly. Louisville has lost 3 of its last 4 games, including last week's shootout with Miami. BC has lost two straight to Virginia and Virginia Tech. Last Thursday against the Hokies, BC trailed 28-0 at the half. The Eagles allowed 368 rushing yards and 523 total. They also turned the ball over three times for the second straight game.
BC is at home tonight, which should give them a boost. The Eagles have one of the most explosive offenses in the country. Explosive plays, or those totaling 20 yards or more, account for almost half of BC's offense this season. On the other end, Louisville has given up 31 explosive plays this season. Last week, they gave up 538 yards and 52 points to Miami.
The Cardinals have now allowed 30 or more points in 3 of their last 4 games. The Over has cashed in 9 of Louisville's last 12 and in 7 of the last 8 games between these two teams. This total opened at 51 and is now up to 53. I think that is sending us a message.
BOISE STATE @ UNLV (BSU -3.5, 64.5)
OVER (1H) 31.5
There is no question both of these teams can score. Boise State is No. 2 in the nation in scoring, averaging 45.0 points per game. UNLV and the Go-Go offense are 12th at 38.8. The Broncos have Heisman hopeful Ashton Jeanty in the backfield. He leads the nation in rushing and rushing touchdowns. He'll face a UNLV run defense that ranks in the top 30 in yards allowed, but in the bottom 20 in explosive runs allowed.
The Boise defense isn't all that great. They rank 100th in Passing Success Rate and the Broncos allow almost 29 points per game. Both teams also start fast. The Broncos rank 3rd and the Rebels 13th in first half scoring. Tonight's first half total is 31.5. Three of UNLV's last four games and 4 of Boise State's last 6 would have all gone Over this number. Look for the offenses to start fast indoors at Allegiant Stadium.
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