TAMPA BAY @ ATLANTA (ATL -1.5, 43.5)
BUCS +1.5
The Bucs continue to pile up wins when unexpected. Last week, they smoked Philadelphia 33-16. They come into tonight with some injury issues and they don't run the ball all that well, but I'll take Baker Mayfield over Kirk Cousins any day.
Tampa Bay is going to blitz the hell out of Cousins. The Bucs rank third in the NFL in blitz rate and Cousins struggles when pressured. Most (94%) of his throws are from the pocket. His EPA per dropback falls from 12th in the league to 24th when he's being pressured.
The Bucs are 8-3 ATS in their last 11 games, 9-2 ATS in their last 11 on the road. Atlanta hasn't been very good as a favorite lately. The Falcons are just 2-10 ATS in their last 12 games as chalk. Cousins hasn't been good in big games either. In primetime, Saturday, holiday, etc. games, Cousins is just 18-24-1 SU and 17-26 ATS.
TEXAS STATE @ TROY (TXST -13.5, 57)
TEXAS STATE (1H) -6.5
Texas State kind of fell off after a close loss to Arizona State. The Bobcats lost another close one (40-39) to Sam Houston State last week. Tonight, Texas State should get back on track. The Spread-n-Shred offense should tear up a very bad Troy defense.
Texas State ranks 37th in the nation in total offense and 16th in scoring, averaging 38.7 points per game. Troy's defense ranks 130th in Success Rate, 96th in Red Zone defense, and the Trojans allow 29.3 points per game.
The Bobcats have won 4 of their last 6 games and they are just four points from being unbeaten this season. The key to their success is that they start fast. Texas State averages over 26 points in the first half and they have covered 3 of 4 first half spreads this season. They start fast tonight against a suspect defense.
SAM HOUSTON STATE @ UTEP (SH -10.5, 51)
UTEP TEAM TOTAL UNDER 20.5
If you don't know much about Conference USA, just know this. UTEP is a bad football team. The Miners are 0-4. The offense is absolutely horrible. The Miners rank 116th in total offense, 130th in rushing offense, and 128th in scoring.
Sam Houston State is not an elite defense and its best defense is actually it's running game. The Bearkats average 216.2 yards rushing per game. That ranks No. 14 in the nation. It also eats up the clock. Sam Houston State ranks 19th in Time of Possession.
UTEP has a hard enough time when it has the ball. It may have it even less tonight. The Miners have scored 17, 10, and 7 points against FBS opponents this season. The only time they went over 20 was against FCS Southern Utah. Oh, and they lost that game 27-24.
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