PURDUE @ ILLINOIS (ILL -23.5, 48.5)
PURDUE (1H) -14
Illinois comes into this game ranked No. 23. The Illini had a bye last week after a 21-7 loss to Penn State on Sept. 28. Purdue is one of the worst teams in the country. The offense ranks 105th in scoring. The defense is 116th in points allowed per game. However, here's why I like Purdue in the first half.
What many don't know is that Hudson Card will not start for Purdue at quarterback. He's been benched in favor of Coach Rick's guy that he coached in high school - Ryan Browne. Purdue will not win this game, but I believe Ryan will give the Boilermakers a spark. He's dynamic, athletic, and he makes plays
Illinois has covered 1 first-half spread this season and that was against FCS Eastern Illinois. The Illini are also 2-9-1 ATS in their last 11 games at home. I'm going to back my QB to keep this one close enough in the first half.
AIR FORCE @ NEW MEXICO (NM -7, 55.5)
AIR FORCE (1H) +4.5
Coach Rick loves his service academies. Air Force is the weakest of the three this season, but one of the top trends in college football betting involves academies playing as underdogs. Over the past decade, Army, Navy, and Air Force combined are 91-59 ATS in the first half when playing as the dog.
Air Force is 0-5 ATS in its games this season, but the Falcons have covered 2 first-half spreads in their last four games. One of those was a game that we played (and won!) when Air Force went up against Baylor.
New Mexico is 1-4 SU this season. They have been trailing at the half this season in all of their games against FBS opponents. Air Force is 5-0 SU and 4-1 ATS in its last five games against the Lobos.
MINNESOTA @ UCLA (MINN -4, 40)
MINNESOTA ML
UCLA made a huge mistake when it hired Deshaun Foster to be the Bruins head coach. UCLA has lost four straight games, all by double digits. The offense is horrendous, averaging 14.7 points per game, which is 129th in the nation. The defense isn't much better. It ranks 103rd in points allowed.
Minnesota has one of the best defenses in the country. The Gophers are the No. 1 pass defense in the country and they only allow 15 points per game. Minnesota has traveled to the West Coast three times since 2012. The Gophers won all three games. They also won last week at home against USC.
Since 2013, teams coming off a win against USC are 30-15 SU the following week. Those teams are 22-21-2 ATS. Minnesota is the better team and I'll stay away from the points and take the Gophers to win outright.
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