COLORADO @ UCF (UFC -14, 61.5)
UCF -14
Coach Prime has been Colorado's head coach for 16 games. In 7 of the games, the Buffaloes have been favored. They were the underdog in the other 9. Colorado is 6-1 SU as a favorite, but just 1-8 SU as an underdog.
Today, they face UCF which is No. 2 in the nation in rushing, averaging a ridiculous 336.5 yards per game. The Knights also average 45.7 points per game. Colorado's defense just isn't good enough to contain the high-powered, dynamic attack of UCF head coach Gus Malzahn.
Since 2017, Colorado is 4-31 SU and 14-19-2 ATS as a double-digit underdog. UCF is just way too powerful for the Buffaloes. Plus, the Knights are at home. UCF is 16-4 in its last 20 home games. I like UCF to pull away in the second half and cover.
TULSA-NORTH TEXAS (NT -6.5, 67.5)
NORTH TEXAS -6.5
North Texas is a hidden gem in the American Athletic Conference. The Mean Green are 3-1 SU so far this season. I played them last week when they were 6.5-point favorites over Wyoming. I think this number is too low once again.
The North Texas passing game ranks No. 9 in the country averaging 327.3 yards per game. QB Chandler Morris is 10th in the nation in passing yards with 1,204 and he has 11 TD passes. Tulsa's pass defense ranks 120th in Success Rate. Tulsa is 2-2 and 3-8 SU in its last 11 games.
North Texas is 8-3-1 ATS in its last 12 games and 10-3 SU in its last 13 at home. Head coach Eric Morris is in his second season with the Mean Green. He is 11-6 ATS overall and 4-1 ATS when his team if the favorite.
ILLINOIS @ PENN STATE (PSU -17.5, 47.5)
PENN STATE (1H) -9.5
Illinois is 4-0 SU and 3-0-1 ATS this season. They were the underdog in two games against ranked opponents and won them both. Doesn't matter. Illinois was outplayed by Kansas, who is now 1-3, and they had trouble pulling away from Central Michigan at home. Now, they face No. 9 Penn State.
The Nittany Lions are a completely different animal than any of the teams Illinois has played. Plus, they are playing at home. Penn State is 17-3 SU in its last 20 games and 10-1 SU in its last 11 at home. The Nittany Lions are 11-3-1 ATS in their last 15 Big Ten games.
Head coach James Franklin is 71-43 ATS when his teams are favored. When laying double digits, Franklin's teams are 43-24-6 ATS and this is interesting. Teams favored by 14 or more in games between Top 25 opponents are 31-21 ATS. I like Penn State and I like them early in this game.
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