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MONDAY, JULY 1, 2024
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NY METS @ WASHINGTON (NYM -115, 8.5)
METS ML
This isn't a great spot for either team. The Mets are coming off an extra-inning loss to the Houston Astros. The Nationals finished up a nine-game road trip on Sunday with a 5-0 loss to Tampa Bay. Washington ended up 3-6 on that road swing with two of the wins over lowly Colorado.
David Peterson (3-0, 3.67) gets the start for the Mets. New York has won his last four straight starts. The Mets have been on fire and finished the month of June 16-8, the second-best record in MLB for the month. New York's resurgence has happened because of its offense. The Mets have scored 5 or more runs in 5 straight games and in 8 of their last 10.
Peterson already has a win over Washington this season. Back on June 4, he pitched 6.2 innings and allowed just 2 ER in a 6-3 victory. Interestingly, it's the only one of Peterson's starts that didn't go Over the total. It ended up as a push.
MacKenzie Gore will start for Washington. He's 6-7 with a 3.92 ERA this season. He's pitched pretty well, but in his last two starts Gore has given up 9 ER. He also has a 4.13 ERA at home this season. Gore faced the Mets on June 3. He gave up 6 ER in 4.1 innings.
MILWAUKEE @ COLORADO (MIL -155, 11)
OVER 11
The last time the Brewers traveled to Colorado it was a disaster. Whatever happens this time, expect a lot of runs tonight. Tonight's starting pitchers have seen better days. We should see a typical run-filled night at Coors Field.
Bryse Wilson starts for the Brewers and he looks pretty impressive on paper. He's 5-3 with a 3.89 ERA, but his expected numbers tell a different story. The regression is already starting too. Wilson's xERA is 4.65 and his xFIP is 5.41. He's allowed 12 ER in his last two starts.
Austin Gomber starts for Colorado and he typically pitches well at Coors Field. He has a sub-4.00 ERA at home this year, but he has allowed 17 ER over his last three starts overall. Gomber also has a 15 percent home run rate at Coors Field, which could spell trouble.
The Over is 7-3 in Milwaukee's last 10 games. Seven of the last ten games between these two teams have produced double-digit run totals and 4 of the last 5 have gone Over the total.
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