MLB ODDS, MLB PREDICTIONS, MLB PREVIEWS
TUESDAY, JULY 2, 2024
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ST. LOUIS @ PITTSBURGH (PIT -131, 8.5)
F5 UNDER 4.5
Mitch Keller starts for the Pirates tonight. He's 9-4 with a 3.20 ERA this season. He's been pretty solid all year thus far. He has allowed 3 or fewer earned runs in 8 of his last 9 starts. Pittsburgh won 8 of those 9 games, by the way. The only loss for Keller in that stretch came against the Cardinals on June 13 when he gave up 4 ER.
Kyle Gibson (5-3, 3.70) starts for St. Louis. Prior to losing his last start, Gibson had gone 4-0 with a 2.64 ERA in his previous 11 trips to the mound. He'll face a Pittsburgh lineup that ranks 26th in OPS vs. RHP. I like Keller to bounce back in this one and battle Gibson early.
The Cardinals have gone Under the F5 total in five straight games. Pittsburgh's F5 O/U record is 14-25 at home this season.
PHILADELPHIA @ CHICAGO CUBS (CHC -128, 9)
PHILLIES ML
The wrong team is favored here. The Cubs are the last-place team in the NL Central and have won just 3 of their last 10 games. Chicago gets the nod as the favorite tonight because the Phillies will be without the Big 3 of Bryce Harper, J.T. Realmuto, and Kyle Schwarber. Philly played without the trio on Sunday and still scored 7 runs in a win over Miami.
Hayden Wesneski starts for the Cubs tonight. His 3.60 ERA looks good on paper until you see that his xERA is 4.81. In his last start, Wesneski pitched just 4 innings, but he only allowed 2 hits. Both of them were home runs. He has now given up 4 homers in his past 4 starts.
Prospect Michael Mercado pitches for the Phillies. He has one inning of MLB experience. This is his first big league start after pitching to a 1.71 ERA in Triple-A this season. He hasn't gone deep in games, but the Phillies have the bullpen advantage in this one.
BALTIMORE @ SEATTLE (BAL -116, 7.5)
UNDER 7.5
There's a reason this total is 7.5. It's the pitching matchup between Grayson Rodriguez of Baltimore and home George Kirby of Seattle. Rodriguez is 9-3 this season with a 3.72 ERA. He had a rough start two weeks ago against Houston, but rebounded in his last outing to allow just 2 ER to a very good Cleveland lineup. Rodriguez picked up the victory in that one.
Home George Kirby has been much better than road George Kirby this season. He's 7-5 with a 3.17 ERA overall, but at home Kirby is 5-1 and his ERA drops to 2.34.. He has 48 Ks in 43 innings at T-Mobile Park this season and he's allowed just one home run.
T-Mobile Park is well known for being a pitcher's ballpark. That shows in Seattle's home O/U record. That stands at 14-28-1 for the season. This should be a pitcher's duel tonight.
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