MLB ODDS, MLB PREDICTIONS, MLB PREVIEWS
THURSDAY, JULY 4, 2024
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SAN FRANCISCO @ ATLANTA (ATL -121, 7.5)
UNDER 7.5
These two teams have split the first two games of this series. Now, it's up Logan Webb and Charlie Morton to settle it. Webb is 6-6 this season with a 3.12 ERA. He pitches better at home, but he has been sharp against Atlanta in his career. He's 2-0 with a 3.05 ERA in six starts against the Braves.
Atlanta is not hitting like it used to. The Braves actually rank worse than the White Sox and A's in wRC+ versus RHP this season. Morton has been up and down this year. He's been mostly up at home. In his last three home starts, Morton allowed 0, 1, and 0 earned runs. The Under is 7-1 in the Braves last eight home games.
TAMPA BAY @ KANSAS CITY (TB -132, 9)
ROYALS ML
Rays starter Zach Eflin struggles on the road. He has a very respectable 3.92 overall ERA this season, but away from home he's not pitched well. Eflin is 1-4 away from Tropicana Field and has a 5.01 road ERA. In his last road start, he went deep into the game pitching 7 innings against the Pirates. But, he gave up 4 ER
Alec Marsh gets the start for Kansas City. He pitches well at home. Marsh is 4-1 with a 3.30 ERA at Kauffman Stadium this season. In each of his last three home starts, the Royals, who are 27-15 at home, have jumped out to big leads on their way to victories.
Kansas City is 23-16-8 on the F5 moneyline at home this season. I like the Royals to get after Eflin early and give Marsh another early lead.
ARIZONA @ LA DODGERS (LAD -133, 8.5)
DIAMONDBACKS F5 +0.5
It is pretty well known that Arizona's Zac Gallen has not pitched well away from home in his career. Lately though, he's been pretty good. He just returned from the injured list and in his last three road starts, he's given up 0, 2, and 0 earned runs. In his first start since returning from the IL, Gallen pitched 6 scoreless innings in a 3-0 win over Oakland.
Arizona beat the Dodgers last night and the DBacks have now won 3 of their last 4 games. What's interesting is that Arizona is pretty good on the F5 run line, especially away from home. For the season, the DBacks are 24-19 on F5 run line on the road. In their last 10 games, they are 7-3. I like Gallen to pitch well early and give Arizona a shot at winning this one.
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