KANSAS CITY @ BALTIMORE (BAL -154, 7)
ROYALS F5 ML
Cole Ragans takes on Corbin Burnes in this one. These two actually pitched against each other way back on April 3. Burnes and the Orioles got the win, but both guys pitched well. Burnes went 5.2 innings and allowed 2 ER. Ragans pitched 6.1 innings and didn't allow an earned run. Expect more of the same today.
Burnes has been on fire lately. He has six straight starts in which he allowed 2 or fewer earned runs. Ragans has allowed 2 or fewer earned runs in each of his last 4 starts. Here's the interesting thing. The Royals have not been losing after 5 innings in a game that Ragans has started since June 29. That's 14 starts. In those 14 starts, Kansas City is 10-0-4 on the F5 moneyline.
In that game on April 3, Kansas City led 2-0 after 5 innings. I'm going to take a shot on the Royals at plus-money here with their best pitcher on the mound.
NY METS @ MILWAUKEE (MIL -136, 7.5)
BREWERS ML
This is a tough spot for the Mets. They just finished a doubleheader yesterday. Plus, they lost two of three games to the Brewers over the weekend. Luis Severino gets the start for the Mets. He's allowed 10 earned runs over his last three starts. The Mets have lost 3 of Severino's last 4 starts.
Freddy Peralta starts for the Brewers. He's been solid as of late. Peralta is 3-2 with a 2.48 ERA over his last seven starts. He's allowed 2 earned runs or less in each of his last three starts. The Brewers owned this season series winning 5 of the 6 games. Milwaukee has the more rested bullpen and they are playing at home in Game 1 of this wild card series.
ATLANTA @ SAN DIEGO (SD -165, 7)
PADRES F5 ML
Michael King starts for the Padres. The Braves have yet to name a starter. With Chris Sale likely out of this series, Atlanta will try to buy itself some time to get to Thursday when the Braves can start Max Fried. Tonight, it's anybody's guess who takes the mound for Atlanta.
One sure thing, though, is King. He's given up 2 or fewer earned runs in 8 straight starts. His ERA in the month of September was 1.57. Atlanta managed just 3 or fewer runs in 4 of its last 5 games. San Diego has won 11 of its last 15. At home, with the better starting pitcher, I'll take the Padres early.
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