DETROIT @ HOUSTON (HOU -180, 7.5)
ASTROS ML
With their backs against the wall, Houston will start Hunter Brown against Tyler Holton of Detroit. Brown had a rough start in 2024, but he rebounded to finish 11-9 with a 3.49 ERA. Over his final 13 starts of the season, Brown went 5-3 with a 2.32 ERA. He only had one bad outing over his last 9 starts. Over those 9, he gave up 2 earned runs or less 8 times.
Holton, a reliever, will open for Detroit. He likely won't pitch more than an inning or two. Then, it's probably up to Reese Olson for Detroit. The Tigers won Olson's last six starts of the season, but he had a 4.30 ERA over those six starts and didn't go very deep in the last few. The Astros bounce back and even up the series.
KANSAS CITY @ BALTIMORE (BAL -160, 7.5)
OVER 7.5
After last night's 1-0 game, tonight will be a different story. Seth Lugo started a game against Baltimore early this season. In that start, Lugo gave up 9 hits, 4 earned runs, and 2 homers. He took a 5-0 loss. Orioles hitters have pretty good numbers against Lugo. Baltimore also ranks in the Top 10 in ISO and OPS against RHP over the last 30 days.
On the other side, Zach Eflin starts for Baltimore. In his last start of the regular season, Eflin walked five batters and gave up 3 earned runs in 4.2 innings of work. Eflin allowed at least one home run in each of his last four starts. Three of those four games went Over the total. In the month of September, Baltimore's bullpen had an ERA over 5.00. That's part of the reason why 4 of the Orioles last 6 regular season games went Over the total. That's where we're headed tonight.
ATLANTA @ SAN DIEGO (SD -130, 6.5)
F5 UNDER 3.5
This is a great pitching matchup as Max Fried takes on Joe Musgrove. Musgrove gave up 2 earned runs or fewer in 7 of his last 9 starts of the season. Over the final two months, Musgrove's ERA was just 2.14. In each of his final three starts of the season, the F5 total went Under 3.5.
Fried wound up 11-10 on the season with a 3.25 ERA. In September, Fried went 3-2 with a 2.14 ERA. Like Musgrove, each of his last three regular season starts went Under the F5 total. I actually like the F5 Under last night in addition to the Padres F5 ML and Padres game moneyline. With these two starting pitchers, I like the F5 Under again.
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