CHICAGO CUBS @ PHILADELPHIA (PHI -180, 8)
PHILLIES ML
The Phillies clinched the NL East with a win over the Cubs on Monday night. Last night, they dropped a 10-4 decision to Chicago. Tonight, Cristopher Sanchez starts for Philadelphia and he's the reason we'll back the Phillies tonight.
Sanchez is 11-9 this season with a 3.25 ERA. In September, Sanchez has a 1.80 ERA in four starts. Philadelphia has won each of Sanchez's last five starts. He excels when pitching at home at Citizens Bank Park where his ERA is just 2.05.
Sanchez and the Phillies will go up against Javier Assad (7-5, 3.34) of the Cubs. Assad has pitched well all season despite a pretty high xERA. Right now, that xERA is 4.68 and the regression is starting. In his last two starts, Assad has pitched a total of 11 innings and he's given up 14 base hits and 7 earned runs. Philadelphia has won 8 of the last 10 against the Cubs and 8 of the last 10 at home.
BOSTON @ TORONTO (TOR -134, 8)
BLUE JAYS F5 ML
Kevin Gausman takes on Richard Fitts in this one. Gausman is 13-11 with a 3.91 ERA this season. He's in great form. Gausman has allowed more than 3 earned runs just twice in his last 12 starts. Toronto is 9-3 in those 12 games. In his last start, Gausman pitched 5 innings and didn't allow a hit or a run. The Blue Jays beat Texas 4-0.
Gausman probably won't go deep in this game either. That's why I like Toronto in the F5. Pitts has not allowed an ER in his three starts this season, but he doesn't strike out a lot of batters and he has an xFIP of 5.17.
Boston won the first two games of this series. Toronto hasn't won a game since last Thursday. The starting pitcher in that one? Kevin Gausman.
SAN DIEGO @ LA DODGERS (LAD -144, 7.5)
PADRES F5 ML
The Padres won last night to give San Diego an 8-2 record against the Dodgers in the last 10 meetings. Dylan Cease starts for San Diego against Jack Flaherty of the Dodgers. Both have pitched well this season. Cease is 14-11 with a 3.42 ERA. Flaherty is 13-7 with a 3.10 ERA.
I'll give the edge to Cease since Flaherty has struggled a bit in his last two starts. In those two starts, Flaherty has pitched a total of 9 innings. He allowed 10 base hits and 7 earned runs. Cease, on the other hand, has a 2.49 ERA in his four starts in September. San Diego won 3 of those 4 starts and the Padres are 2-1-1 on the F5 moneyline in those starts.
Cease pitched 5.2 innings against the Dodgers back on July 31. He gave up 1 earned run and the Padres won that game 8-1. They also won on the F5 moneyline.
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