MINNESOTA @ JACKSONVILLE (MIN -7, 43.5)
VIKINGS (1Q) -1.5
Minnesota opened as a 4-point favorite in this one. Then, it was announced that Trevor Lawence would not play for the Jags. The result is Minnesota -7 and the 1Q line ticked up as well. I actually played it at -0.5 earlier in the week, but I still like it at -1.5. Minnesota covered 7 straight 1Q spreads before last week. Against the Colts, the Vikings played to a scoreless first quarter to go 7-1 ATS in the 1Q.
Minnesota leads the NFL in first quarter scoring. Jacksonville ranks in the bottom-5 in the NFL in the same category. With Mac Jones at quarterback for the Jags, don't expect much from the Jacksonville offense...especially early in the game.
TENNESSEE @ LA CHARGERS (LAC -7.5, 39.5)
TITANS TEAM TOTAL UNDER 15.5
The Titans offense is pretty much a disaster this year. Will Levis is expected to be back at quarterback for Tennessee. It only means he gets to get his ass kicked instead of Mason Rudolph. The Chargers lead the NFL in scoring defense, allowing just 12.6 points per game. The Bolts have given up more than 17 points in a game this season just once.
Tennessee scored 20 points last week against New England. In its prior two games, the Titans managed 10 and 14 points. Tennessee is 2-9 SU and ATS in its last 11 games. Will Levis is notorious for not covering spreads - 4-10 ATS overall. In games where he has had normal prep time (7 days or less), Levis is 1-7 SU and ATS. In those 8 games, the Titans scored more than 17 points just once.
ARIZONA STATE-GONZAGA (GON -20.5, 157.5)
GONZAGA -18.5
What's not to like about Gonzaga? They're the No. 6 team in the country, loaded roster, and they spanked Baylor in their season opener. Arizona State played a comparable team in Duke in an exhibition game prior to the start of their season. The Sun Devils got crushed. They have a win over a mediocre Idaho State and a nice win over Santa Clara as 4.5-point underdogs.
But, this is Gonzaga. Arizona State is shooting threes on 55 percent of their shots this year. That isn't sustainable against a perimeter defense like Gonzaga. If they get into a track meet with the Bulldogs, forget it. ASU is 1-7 in its last 8 road games. Gonzaga is 5-1 ATS in its last 6 as a favorite. I prefer this one at the opening line of 18.5.
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