PITTSBURGH @ CLEVELAND (PIT -3.5, 36.5)
STEELERS ML
Even though the Browns are just 2-8, this is a huge rivalry game. There's going to be some weather issues tonight, which could make this one get very ugly. Cleveland averages just 16.4 points per game, which ranks 29th in the NFL. The Steelers are coming off an offensive performance where they kicked six field goals (they beat Baltimore).
This is not a good spot for Pittsburgh. They have never won a divisional game on Thursday Night Football. The Steelers are just 2-8 SU and 4-6 ATS in road games on Thursday night. Since 2018, AFC North underdogs have covered at a 61 percent clip, but can the Browns really pull that off?
Here's what I know. Pittsburgh is better on both sides of the ball. They have one of the best defenses in the NFL. Cleveland has one of the worst offenses. Plus, the Browns have just one win in their last eight games. I'll stay away from the line and take the Steelers straight up.
NC STATE @ GEORGIA TECH (GT -8.5, 52)
UNDER 52
Both teams come into this game well rested. Georgia Tech pulled off a massive upset of Miami in its last game, holding the high-powered Hurricanes to just 23 points. NC State lost to Duke as a 3-point home favorite in its last game. The Wolfpack have had issues running the football. They have become more one-dimensional with QB CJ Bailey running the offense.
Georgia Tech will "run the damn ball" according to head coach Brent Key. That is exactly what they did against Miami, gaining 271 yards on the ground. The Yellow Jackets stop the run too. They rank in the Top 35 in Line Yards and Defensive Rush Success Rate. They aren't as good against the pass, but it's hard to see NC State having a ton of success against GT. The Wolfpack offense operates at one of the slowest tempos in college football.
That slow pace along with Georgia Tech's affinity for running the football (and bleeding the clock) is the Under makes sense here. Five of Georgia Tech's last six games and three of NC State's last four have all gone Under this number.
TENNESSEE @ VIRGINIA (TEN -11.5, 1270
TENNESSEE -11.5
This is a neutral site game featuring two of the best defensive teams in college basketball over the last decade. The difference tonight, though, is Tennessee's offense. The Vols rank in the Top 20 in the nation in Adjusted Offensive Efficiency and they shoot the ball very well. The Vols are No. 3 in Effective Field Goal Percentage and they get to the free throw line fairly often.
If Virginia is going to have a chance to win or cover, the Cavaliers are going to have to score some points. That is not Virginia's forte. The offense averages 65.7 points per game right now. That ranks 329th in the country. Plus, Virginia hasn't really played a team of this caliber. The Cavs have played Campbell, Coppin State, and a struggling Villanova team. Advantage Tennessee.
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