MIAMI @ LA RAMS (LAR -2.5, 49)
RAMS -2.5
Miami is a different team with Tua under center. Obviously, the offense is much better. The Dolphins scored 27 points in each of their last two games. Tua started both games. The problem for Miami is that they didn't win either game.
The Fins will have trouble tonight, too, as the Rams are likely to pressure Tua. Los Angeles pressures the quarterback at the second-highest rate in the NFL. Tua does not do well under pressure. He also doesn't do well at night. In 12 career night games, Tua is just 3-9 ATS. He's 0-5 SU and 1-4 ATS in his last five night games. Miami is 1-7 ATS in its last 8 games as an underdog and the Rams have been very good at home lately. They are 7-1 SU in their last 8 at SoFi Stadium.
SACRAMENTO @ SAN ANTONIO (SAC -1.5, 222)
SPURS (1Q) ML
The Kings went to overtime yesterday and beat the Suns in Phoenix. Now, they're in San Antonio to face the Spurs tonight. San Antonio is a Top 5 defense and the Kings have struggled against good defensive teams. Sacramento is 2-4 SU in its last 6 games against a Top 10 defense.
The fatigue from the overtime game plus the travel yesterday leads me to believe the Kings come out a little flat. The Spurs are 3-2 on the first quarter moneyline in their last five games. The spread here is just 0.5, so we'll take the Spurs to win the first quarter.
LAMAR @ TEXAS A&M (A&M -23, 145)
TEXAS A&M -23
Texas A&M corrected itself after a season-opening upset loss to UCF. The Aggies came back in their second game and crushed Texas A&M-Commerce by 32 points. The Aggies have won 28 of their last 29 non-conference games at home. Lamar, on the other hand, has lost 18 of its last 19 non-conference road games.
In the latest KenPom rankings, Lamar is No. 276. Texas A&M is a Top 20 team in both the preseason AP poll (13th) and in the most recent KenPom rankings (17th). With a net rating of +20.45, there is just too much talent here for Lamar. Don't expect the Cardinals to hang around for very long.
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