BALTIMORE @ TAMPA BAY (BAL -3.5, 49.5)
OVER 49.5
These are two of the top-scoring offenses in the NFL. Tampa Bay ranks third averaging 29.7 points per game. Baltimore is right behind the Bucs in fourth place scoring 29.5 points per game. There is a tendency to equate big scoring teams and the Under. However, not in this case.
One, these two offenses are just too good not to score on each other. Two, both of these defenses have some issues. For years, Baltimore has had one of the best defenses in all of football. This year is no different. The Ravens do lead the NFL in run defense, allowing opponents to gain just 59 yards per game on the ground. Baltimore's problems are in defending the pass.
Heading into tonight's game, Baltimore is currently dead last in the NFL in passing yards allowed per game (275.7). The passing game just happens to be the strength of the Tampa Bay offense, led by QB Baker Mayfield. Mayfield leads the NFL in passing touchdowns with 15 (Green Bay's Jordan Love threw his 15th TD pass yesterday).
Tampa Bay isn't much better in defending the pass. The Bucs rank 29th in pass defense, allowing opponents to throw for 252.3 yards per game. Lamar Jackson and the Ravens pass offense actually ranks sixth in the NFL, two spots higher than Tampa Bay. Five of the last six Baltimore games and 5 of the last 7 Tampa Bay games have all gone Over the total. Tonight's total opened at 44.5. Don't be surprised if it closes above 50.
LA CHARGERS @ ARIZONA (LAC -1.5, 44.5)
CHARGERS (1H) -1.5
The Chargers defense should be the best unit on the field tonight. The only thing is that the Bolts defense may have to play without some of its key personnel. One of those is DE Joey Bosa who is listed as doubtful for tonight's game. Regardless of who plays, the LA defense will still give Arizona fits.
The Cardinals offense is banged up too and, even when healthy, Arizona is inconsistent at best. The Cards offense is going to have to fight for the ball. The Chargers will give Arizona a heavy dose of their run-first offense. LA is sixth in time of possession. The Cardinals rank 30th in defending the run, allowing opponents to gain 153 rushing yards per game.
In their last four games, the Chargers have controlled the football and scored enough to hold the lead at the end of the first half. Los Angeles is 4-1 against the first half spread this season. On the other hand, Arizona has been outscored in each of its last four first halves. The Cardinals have been outscored in each of those first halves by at least 10 points. It's no surprise that Arizona is 0-4 against the first half spread in its last four games.
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