PHILADELPHIA @ CINCINNATI (CIN -2.5, 47.5)
BENGALS -2.5 (BONUS PICK: CIN (1Q) -0.5)
The Bengals got some defensive line help back in the lineup recently. You've seen the results over the last few weeks. Cincy gave up 7 points to the Giants and 14 to the Browns. Eagles LT Jordan Mailata will not play either. That could create some issues for the Eagles offense.
For the Bengals, Joe Burrow is tearing it up. He's got 14 TD passes against just 2 interceptions so far this season and he ranks in the top 5 of almost all QB metrics. The bigger thing is this. He's 40-25-1 ATS in his career. On the other side, Jalen Hurts struggles against the number when playing on the road - 13-19-1 ATS in road games in his career.
Philadelphia has issues in covering WR1 on opposing teams. They are going to have to deal with Tee Higgins and JaMarr Chase with a rookie corner and another who is less than 100 percent. The Eagles are 1-2 ATS in their last three games and 3-10 ATS in their last 13.
The other thing about Philly - they have not scored a point in the first quarter of any game this season. I would check out the Eagles-Bengals first quarter spread. Philadelphia is the only team in the NFL without a first quarter cover. The Eagles are 0-6 ATS in the opening quarter.
CAROLINA @ DENVER (DEN -11, 40.5)
TEASER OR BRONCOS (1H) -6.5
Denver has won 3 of its last 4 games. The Broncos are coming off a huge 33-10 in over New Orleans last Thursday. Carolina reminds Coach Rick of the Saints. They've been playing with a backup quarterback and they have tons of injuries. The word is that Carolina is going to put Bryce Young back in as the starting quarterback. He might as well be an NFL backup.
On the other end, it's hard to get behind a rookie quarterback (Bo Nix) laying 11 points. However, there is some value in the first half of this game. Denver is No. 1 in the NFL in blitz rate. The Broncos are going to make life difficult for Young. The Denver offense is going to take advantage of a poor Carolina run defense. The Panthers rank dead last in the NFL in rushing yards allowed per game and 31st in DVOA versus the run.
Last week, Denver RB Javontae Williams ran for 88 yards and two touchdowns in the win over the Saints. Denver will exploit this Carolina weakness early and have success...as most teams do against the Panthers early in games. In their last 14 games, Carolina is 1-13 against the first half spread.
DALLAS @ SAN FRANCISCO (SF -4.5, 47.5)
BROCK PURDY 225+ PASSING YARDS
Yes, Purdy will be without Brandon Aiyuk and Jauan Jennings. He might also not have Deebo Samuel or George Kittle. Both are questionable for tonight. Christian McCaffrey has been out for weeks. Still, Purdy will manage to hit this number with a cast of receivers that most are not familiar with.
Purdy has managed to surpass this number in all but one game this season (6-1 to the Over). In 10 of his last 12 home games, Purdy has gone Over 240 yards. The Dallas pass defense ranks 19th in the NFL and is coming off a game in which Detroit's Jared Goff worked them over for 308 passing yards. CB DaRon Bland and LB Micah Parsons will not play for Dallas making it even easier for Purdy to hit this number.
Ylose expert Coach Rick Bowe delivers his daily Quick Picks. The Coach continues to roll up big wins in MLB, college football, the NFL, and much more. Coach Rick offers a unique perspective to handicapping. Check out his daily free picks right here and jump on his daily Best Bets, which you can find right here at Ylose.com/coach.