GREEN BAY @ CHICAGO (GB -5.5, 40.5)
PACKERS -5.5
Buy the Green Bay Packers now, if you haven't already. Green Bay owns this series. The Packers have won 10 straight, both SU and ATS, against the Bears. Chicago hasn't won or covered against Green Bay since 2018.
The Bears are a great fade candidate when it comes to NFC North games. Since 2019, Chicago is 8-21-1 ATS in divisional games. The Bears are the least profitable team in the NFL when playing within its division. Then, you have the Bears offense.
Over their last three games, the Bears have scored a total of 27 points. Last week, Chicago managed just 142 yards of total offense and three points...against the Patriots! Green Bay is coming off a bye week. That means Jordan Love is a little healthier and Packers head coach Matt LaFleur's team is 14-10 ATS on extended rest. When his team has been favored by 4 or more, LaFleur and the Packers are 7-3 ATS.
MINNESOTA @ TENNESSEE (MIN -6, 39.5)
VIKINGS (2H) -3.5
The Tennessee Titans are absolute garbage. Possibly the only thing worse than their overall performance is their performance in the second half of games. It all starts with QB Will Levis. He ranks 30th in passer rating and has 7 INTs to go with his 7 TDs. His second half performances have been awful, to say the least.
In his short NFL career, Levis is 2-13 against the second half spread. When you remove Monday Night Football games from his career stats, Levis is a whopping 0-13 ATS in 2H. Last week, the Titans played the Chargers. Tennessee trailed 13-7 at the half and promptly got beat in the second 14-10. The Titans were +3.5 in the second half in that game as well.
KANSAS CITY @ BUFFALO (BUF -2, 46.5)
MACK HOLLINS OVER 2.5 RECEPTIONS
The Buffalo Bills really don't have a ton of quality receivers. That's where Hollins fits in. Over the last two weeks, Hollins has been targeted 9 times. He has 9 receptions - 4 against Indy last week and 5 against Miami the week before.
The Chiefs actually give up a lot of catches to opposing tight ends. Mike Gesicki had 7, Cade Otton 8, and Isaiah Likely had 9 against KC. The issue for Buffalo is that their top TE, Dalton Kincaid, is out today. Somebody is picking up the slack and that is going to be the the big-bodied (6-4, 221) Hollins. He's had at least 2 catches in 7 games this season, but he's cleared 2.5 four times, times when the Bills receiver room has been injured.
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