TAMPA BAY @ KANSAS CITY (TB -132, 9)
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RAYS VS. ROYALS 7/4/24
Tonight in Kansas City will mark the conclusion of the three-game series between the Tampa Bay Rays and Kansas City Royals. Nestled between the Red Sox and Blue Jays in the AL East standings, the Rays are in fourth place. Along with the Twins, the Royals are in a wild card position in the AL Central Division and are closing in on the Guardians. Two right-handers square off in tonight’s pitching matchup when the Rays send Zach Eflin (4-5, 3.42) up to the hill against Alec Marsh (6-5, 4.19) of the Royals.
The Rays have spent the majority of the season in a state of flux, vacating back and forth between fourth and fifth place in the AL East Division. The Rays enter this series having defeated the Nationals in two of their last three home games and they have won three of their previous five games overall.
After a two and a half-hour rain delay, the Rays won the first game of the series 5-1. The Rays' 4-2 loss to the Royals on Wednesday night brought the series to a game apiece. Ryan Pepiot, the starter, took the loss after giving up four hits and two runs in four innings. In order to finish the series against the Royals, the Rays will turn to Eflin. In 15 starts this season, including five quality starts, Eflin is 4-5 overall. He has a 3.92 ERA and in his most recent start, Eflin struck out six batters while giving up just four hits and no runs in a win over Washington.
The Royals had a difficult June, but they now seem to have turned things around. They continue their quest to make the playoffs for the first time since they advanced to the World Series in consecutive years in 2014 and 2015. The Royals entered this series having defeated the top-seeded Guardians in three of their last four games over the weekend.
The Royals won 4-2 on Wednesday after the Game 1 loss to tie the series. Michael Wacha, the starter, won the game with eight strikeouts in six innings while giving up just two hits and one run. The Royals will start Marsh tonight to end the series. In 15 starts this season, Marsh is 6-5 and has a 4.19 ERA. In his last start, he pitched six innings, allowing four hits and one run in a 10-3 Royals win over Cleveland.
Marsh pitches well at home. He is 4-1 at Kauffman Stadium and his home ERA of 3.30 is almost a run lower than his season ERA. The right-hander has also won three of his previous five starts. Marsh has received plenty of run support too. Six of his last eight starts have gone Over the total.
Eflin pitches better at home. He is just 1-4 in road games this season with a 5.01 road ERA.
FREE PICK: RAYS-ROYALS OVER 9
This total opened at 8.5 and is now up to 9. Zach Eflin pitches for the Rays and he doesn’t do well on the road. He’s just 1-4 with a 5.01 road ERA this season. When Alec Marsh pitches for Kansas City, he typically gets a lot of run support. Six of his last eight starts have gone Over the total. The Royals are the fifth-best scoring team at home this season, averaging 5.10 runs per game at Kauffman Stadium. Both of these teams are trending Under, but tonight this one goes Over.
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